Due to a falling marriage rate, or people waiting longer to get married, and a declining birthrate coupled with medical advances, increased living standards and longer life spans, Taiwan officially became an aged society in 2018.
Ministry of the Interior population statistics for the first eight months of this year show 116,389 deaths and 105,161 births, or a net population decrease of 11,128 — the first time a decline has been recorded.
Since Taiwan became an aged society, the annual average of childbirths has decreased by about 8,000 to 9,000 each year, while the number of people aged 65 or older has increased significantly, making Taiwan one of the world’s fastest-aging societies.
According to a National Development Council report on population projections through 2070, the decline began this year, two years ahead of what was expected.
Sixteen percent of the population is aged 65 or older and that is expected to increase to 20 percent by 2025.
If it does, Taiwan will officially have become a super-aged society one year ahead of projections.
An aged society with a negative population growth rate is likely to have important implications.
The demographic imbalance, due to a fall in the ratio of working-age population to old population, will have a huge impact on the economy and society, regardless of pension reforms and improved state finances.
For example, a low birthrate and longer lifespans will mean that spending from the Labor Insurance Fund will exceed revenue. It is estimated that the fund could go bankrupt by 2026.
The negative population growth rate and its effect on the labor force will result in a top-heavy, “inverted triangle” demographic.
The increasing number of older people, coupled with rapidly increasing demand for medical treatment and long-term care, will result in a shortage of medical resources and a lack of long-term carers, as well as shrinking government finances and tax revenue, and create a higher need for subsidies for poor and disadvantaged people.
On top of that, young people have to live with low salaries and are unable to afford property, which will contribute to their feeling of insecurity.
These factors will have a deleterious effect on Taiwan’s economy and society, to the extent that it is elevated to a national security problem.
The government needs to find an appropriate way to deal with the huge socio-economic impact that population decline will have on the nation.
For example, to address the effects of a rapidly aging society, the government needs to improve control of state finances to reduce the accumulation of debt.
On the problem of a declining labor force, it must explore ways to increase job opportunities for women, while allowing people to work until a higher age, which will increase the labor force participation rate.
The government must also investigate how to increase the use of smart applications and automation to supplement shortfalls in the labor force.
However, the most important challenge is to increase the birthrate, maintain the population and stabilize the nation’s demographic structure.
The government should establish a cross-departmental committee to propose concrete, viable policies to ensure the sustainable governance and security of the nation and its populace.
Lee Shen-yi is vice chairman of the Contemporary Taiwan Development Foundation.
Translated by Paul Cooper
They did it again. For the whole world to see: an image of a Taiwan flag crushed by an industrial press, and the horrifying warning that “it’s closer than you think.” All with the seal of authenticity that only a reputable international media outlet can give. The Economist turned what looks like a pastiche of a poster for a grim horror movie into a truth everyone can digest, accept, and use to support exactly the opinion China wants you to have: It is over and done, Taiwan is doomed. Four years after inaccurately naming Taiwan the most dangerous place on
Wherever one looks, the United States is ceding ground to China. From foreign aid to foreign trade, and from reorganizations to organizational guidance, the Trump administration has embarked on a stunning effort to hobble itself in grappling with what his own secretary of state calls “the most potent and dangerous near-peer adversary this nation has ever confronted.” The problems start at the Department of State. Secretary of State Marco Rubio has asserted that “it’s not normal for the world to simply have a unipolar power” and that the world has returned to multipolarity, with “multi-great powers in different parts of the
President William Lai (賴清德) recently attended an event in Taipei marking the end of World War II in Europe, emphasizing in his speech: “Using force to invade another country is an unjust act and will ultimately fail.” In just a few words, he captured the core values of the postwar international order and reminded us again: History is not just for reflection, but serves as a warning for the present. From a broad historical perspective, his statement carries weight. For centuries, international relations operated under the law of the jungle — where the strong dominated and the weak were constrained. That
On the eve of the 80th anniversary of Victory in Europe (VE) Day, Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Chairman Eric Chu (朱立倫) made a statement that provoked unprecedented repudiations among the European diplomats in Taipei. Chu said during a KMT Central Standing Committee meeting that what President William Lai (賴清德) has been doing to the opposition is equivalent to what Adolf Hitler did in Nazi Germany, referencing ongoing investigations into the KMT’s alleged forgery of signatures used in recall petitions against Democratic Progressive Party legislators. In response, the German Institute Taipei posted a statement to express its “deep disappointment and concern”