Israel-based geo-intelligence data provider ImageSat International on May 13 released a satellite photograph of the Chinese-controlled Fiery Cross Reef (Yongshu Reef, 永暑礁) on Twitter. The image gave a clear view of Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Air Force Shaanxi KJ-500 airborne early-warning aircraft, KQ-200 anti-submarine maritime patrol aircraft and a suspected Changhe Z-18 anti-submarine helicopter, showing that the PLA has advanced its deployment in the South China Sea.
Only last month, China established Xisha District (西沙) on Woody Island (Yongxing Island, 永興島) and Nansha District (南沙) on the reef, both of which fall under Sansha, a prefecture-level city established in 2012.
It is apparent that Beijing is intensifying its political management and military control over the disputed Spratly Islands (Nansha Islands, 南沙群島). Taiwan, which relies heavily on the sea line of communication in the region, must be vigilant about the PLA’s expansion in the South China Sea.
The deployment of early-warning aircraft doe not simply imply the establishment of a sea-and-air warning system. China has more important goals: gaining access to long-distance targets and establishing airborne command and control.
While the satellite image did not show warplanes stationed on the reef, an earlier image released by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative in June 2016 revealed dehumidifying and air-conditioning facilities installed on the roof of hangars at the end of the airstrip. Clearly, China’s deployment of fighter jets on the reef has long been in the planning.
Stationing the Z-18, which resembles the PLA’s Harbin Z-8 multi-role helicopter, and KQ-200 aircraft on the reef demonstrates the expansion of the PLA’s anti-submarine capabilities.
It also explains why a Type 052D Luyang III-class guided-missile destroyer and the Type 054A Jiangkai II-class missile frigate, forming part of the aircraft carrier Liaoning’s battle group, were equipped with SGJ-311 composite towed array sonar when the group passed through the Miyako Strait on April 10 and sailed to the South China Sea through the Bashi Channel on April 12.
The PLA is pushing to upgrade equipment and enhance training to improve its inadequate anti-submarine capabilities.
As early as 2016, former Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force vice admiral Yoji Koda proposed the concept of the “strategic triangle” in the journal Asia Policy. The three vertices of this triangle are Woody Island in the north, Scarborough Shoal (Huangyan Island, 黃岩島) in the east and the “iron triangle” of the Spratly Islands in the south formed by Mischief Reef (Meiji Reef, 美濟礁), Subi Reef (Jhubi Reef, 渚碧礁) and Fiery Cross Reef, Koda said.
Koda wrote that this triangle would have a huge effect on the US’ and Japan’s strategic planning and “could be a game changer in regional power relations.”
In May last year, three PLA helicopters — two Z-8 or Z-18 type and one Z-9 — were spotted on Woody Island, and a Xian H-6K bomber carried out touch-and-go training on the islet at about the same time.
A satellite image captured by ImageSat in June last year showed that China redeployed HQ-9 surface-to-air missile systems to the island’s north shore; a month later, Shenyang J-11 fighter jets were also spotted stationed on the island. By the end of the month, there were at least four J-10 fighter jets deployed on the island, while a stationary surveillance aerostat was spotted on the northern side of Mischief Reef in November last year.
These show that the PLA is expanding its deployment from Woody Island, the triangle’s northern tip, to Mischief Reef in the southeastern tip and eventually to Fiery Cross Reef in the west.
Beijing is applying “salami-slicing tactics” with the aim of demarcating its own air defense identification zone in the South China Sea and subsequently building up interception capabilities.
This is what Koda refers to as the “game changer.”
This does not mark the end of China’s military expansion. The KQ-200 aircraft stationed on Fiery Cross Reef represent the PLA’s long-range underwater combat capabilities, aimed further west into the Indian Ocean.
Lu Li-shih is a former instructor at the Republic of China Naval Academy and a former captain of the ROCS Hsin Chiang.
Translated by Chang Ho-ming
China has not been a top-tier issue for much of the second Trump administration. Instead, Trump has focused considerable energy on Ukraine, Israel, Iran, and defending America’s borders. At home, Trump has been busy passing an overhaul to America’s tax system, deporting unlawful immigrants, and targeting his political enemies. More recently, he has been consumed by the fallout of a political scandal involving his past relationship with a disgraced sex offender. When the administration has focused on China, there has not been a consistent throughline in its approach or its public statements. This lack of overarching narrative likely reflects a combination
US President Donald Trump’s alleged request that Taiwanese President William Lai (賴清德) not stop in New York while traveling to three of Taiwan’s diplomatic allies, after his administration also rescheduled a visit to Washington by the minister of national defense, sets an unwise precedent and risks locking the US into a trajectory of either direct conflict with the People’s Republic of China (PRC) or capitulation to it over Taiwan. Taiwanese authorities have said that no plans to request a stopover in the US had been submitted to Washington, but Trump shared a direct call with Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平)
Heavy rains over the past week have overwhelmed southern and central Taiwan, with flooding, landslides, road closures, damage to property and the evacuations of thousands of people. Schools and offices were closed in some areas due to the deluge throughout the week. The heavy downpours brought by the southwest monsoon are a second blow to a region still recovering from last month’s Typhoon Danas. Strong winds and significant rain from the storm inflicted more than NT$2.6 billion (US$86.6 million) in agricultural losses, and damaged more than 23,000 roofs and a record high of nearly 2,500 utility poles, causing power outages. As
The greatest pressure Taiwan has faced in negotiations stems from its continuously growing trade surplus with the US. Taiwan’s trade surplus with the US reached an unprecedented high last year, surging by 54.6 percent from the previous year and placing it among the top six countries with which the US has a trade deficit. The figures became Washington’s primary reason for adopting its firm stance and demanding substantial concessions from Taipei, which put Taiwan at somewhat of a disadvantage at the negotiating table. Taiwan’s most crucial bargaining chip is undoubtedly its key position in the global semiconductor supply chain, which led
RSS