The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) might act aggressively against Taiwan amid the chaos of the COVID-19 pandemic. While no one is seeking a war, the Republic of China and its friends should responsibly prepare for various contingencies and enhance deterrence against China.
Chinese President Xi Jinping’s (習近平) visit to maritime ports in Zhejiang, China, raised eyebrows among China-watchers.
Some have said that Xi conducted the trip to signal the economy’s reopening or to offer assurances to the Zhejiang faction, while others have said that the province is home to the East Sea Fleet, which would figure prominently in any blockade or even invasion of Taiwan.
A blockade or invasion is unlikely, but should not be dismissed as alarmist: Beijing has never renounced the use of force against Taiwan, and the People’s Liberation Army has behaved provocatively over the past few months.
As China’s economic performance weakens and unemployment rises, the CCP might become desperate for noneconomic legitimation — namely, a political “victory” on the issue of Taiwan.
The CCP has always had the motive to coerce Taiwan, but it might regard the chaos of the pandemic as a unique opportunity to secure its objectives.
While the US and Japanese militaries retain fearsome capabilities, the US and Japanese responses to the coronavirus have been unimpressive, and several key military assets would not operate at full capacity for weeks, possibly months.
The end of monsoon season opens a “window of attack” across the Taiwan Strait from next month to July.
Taiwan can counteract the CCP’s attempts to coerce it. Communications between the central government and local authorities could be affected by Chinese cybercapabilities, so Taiwan should prepare for distributed governance and consider diffusing stores of food, seeds, weapons and vehicle fuel across the nation.
Civil defense drills might also be advisable. As oil prices are at historic lows, restocking gasoline and diesel inventories would prove to be a financial windfall for Taiwan, not just strategically sensible.
Taiwan’s friends in Washington, Tokyo and beyond should work with Taipei to immediately supply it with weapons, food and fuel.
Simultaneously, all sides must acknowledge the sensitivities of the Taiwan issue.
Washington and Taipei should strike a responsible equilibrium: They should substantively strengthen Taiwan’s defenses, but without unnecessary symbolism, which could provoke Beijing. Publicizing any arms sales or transfers would likely decrease rather than enhance Taiwan’s security.
The CCP is not likely to invade Taiwan. It would likely fail in the attempt, and even a “successful” invasion would seriously threaten economic and social stability in China, potentially leading to the CCP’s collapse.
However, the probability that the CCP would attempt to coerce Taiwan is rising, and Taipei and its friends should calmly address risks together and prepare for difficult weeks ahead.
Joe Webster is editor of China-Russia Report, although the views expressed here are his alone.
A high-school student surnamed Yang (楊) gained admissions to several prestigious medical schools recently. However, when Yang shared his “learning portfolio” on social media, he was caught exaggerating and even falsifying content, and his admissions were revoked. Now he has to take the “advanced subjects test” scheduled for next month. With his outstanding performance in the general scholastic ability test (GSAT), Yang successfully gained admissions to five prestigious medical schools. However, his university dreams have now been frustrated by the “flaws” in his learning portfolio. This is a wake-up call not only for students, but also teachers. Yang did make a big
As former president Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) concludes his fourth visit to China since leaving office, Taiwan finds itself once again trapped in a familiar cycle of political theater. The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has criticized Ma’s participation in the Straits Forum as “dancing with Beijing,” while the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) defends it as an act of constitutional diplomacy. Both sides miss a crucial point: The real question is not whether Ma’s visit helps or hurts Taiwan — it is why Taiwan lacks a sophisticated, multi-track approach to one of the most complex geopolitical relationships in the world. The disagreement reduces Taiwan’s
Former president Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) is visiting China, where he is addressed in a few ways, but never as a former president. On Sunday, he attended the Straits Forum in Xiamen, not as a former president of Taiwan, but as a former Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) chairman. There, he met with Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference Chairman Wang Huning (王滬寧). Presumably, Wang at least would have been aware that Ma had once been president, and yet he did not mention that fact, referring to him only as “Mr Ma Ying-jeou.” Perhaps the apparent oversight was not intended to convey a lack of
Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Chairman Eric Chu (朱立倫) last week announced that the KMT was launching “Operation Patriot” in response to an unprecedented massive campaign to recall 31 KMT legislators. However, his action has also raised questions and doubts: Are these so-called “patriots” pledging allegiance to the country or to the party? While all KMT-proposed campaigns to recall Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) lawmakers have failed, and a growing number of local KMT chapter personnel have been indicted for allegedly forging petition signatures, media reports said that at least 26 recall motions against KMT legislators have passed the second signature threshold
RSS