While the world is struggling under the weight of responding to the COVID-19 outbreak, it remains important not to be distracted from issues that were playing out before the pandemic took hold.
One of these is the safety and basic human rights of protesters in Hong Kong. It is safe to assume that Beijing has been preparing for the resumption of the protests when the pandemic recedes.
Several recently published reports serve as a reminder of the lingering dangers — social, political and economic — Hong Kong faces while the world is distracted. The anti-extradition protests hit the economy, but the damage to Hong Kong’s reputation as a business hub goes deeper.
The Heritage Foundation’s Index of Economic Freedom measures the freedom of trade, business, investment and property rights of countries worldwide. Hong Kong’s economy was ranked the freest in the 25 years from 1995 to last year. In this year’s ranking it slipped to second place, ceding the top slot to Singapore. It is not that Singapore scored higher this year: Hong Kong’s slide is due to a 10-point drop in its investment freedom rating.
According to the foundation’s analysis, investment flows have been dampened because the territory’s reputation as a business hub has been eroded by the ongoing political and social turmoil, of which the anti-extradition protests — which have evolved into a call for wider democratic reforms — are only the most recent, and most serious, manifestation.
The report also said that Hong Kong fell into recession last year because of the increasing integration of its traditionally open, market-driven economy with China through trade, tourism and financial links.
Hong Kong’s long-standing image as the freest economy in the world is being tarnished by its integration into the Chinese economy, with concerns over the effect of this on its open, rules-based, just system, and the political and social turmoil caused by Hong Kongers’ response to Beijing’s accelerated pace of this integration under Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平).
As a harbinger of the coming storm, Reuters yesterday reported that credible sources, including a legislator and a foreign diplomat, had revealed that officers from the People’s Armed Police (PAP), China’s top internal security force, had joined Hong Kong police to monitor the protests last year. The diplomat and other foreign envoys also estimated that there are now 4,000 PAP personnel in Hong Kong.
In addition to the legal implications of this, which are further evidence of the erosion of rule of law in the territory, observers are concerned that the PAP could be involved in a crackdown if the protests resume, the report said.
Its involvement would be met with the condemnation of the international community, but even if it does not get involved, Hong Kong police are expected to take a stronger stance regarding the next wave of protests. From what has been observed of the protesters’ resolve, this would only escalate tensions.
In addition to the implications concerning the safety of Hong Kongers, expectation alone would do little to improve investor confidence in the territory.
The current lull in the protests might have given the false impression that the worst is over, and that the territory can return to its first-place ranking in next year’s index. It is not, and likely will not.
The protests are largely expected to resume later this year, when the epidemic is deemed under control and prior to legislative elections in September.
While Beijing and Hong Kong authorities are formulating their plans, it is important for the international community, as well as the government — and the opposition — here in Taiwan to make clear that they are watching, and that a violent crackdown would not be tolerated.
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