On Dec. 21, 2007, and again on March 5, 2008, just days before Taiwan’s presidential election, then-US secretary of state Condoleezza Rice issued an unusually sharp rebuke to then-president Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁), calling a planned referendum on UN membership “provocative and a bad idea that promises no real benefits for the people of Taiwan on the international stage.”
Rice’s remarks probably instilled an element of fear in Taiwan’s electorate regarding the referendum, perhaps contributing to a certain extent to the Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) defeat in the 2008 election.
President Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) likely had this in mind when dealing with the Formosa Alliance.
Fast-forward to now and a horrid picture of Taiwan under “siege” from China has been painted. Beijing has ramped up its exercises in the Taiwan Strait, circumnavigating Taiwan with warships and bombers to intimidate Taiwan. Beijing continues to poach Taiwan’s allies and forces international companies to refer to Taiwan as a province of China.
The Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) United Front Work Department — often in concert with China-friendly media in Taiwan — spreads fake news to sow public chaos aimed at tilting the elections in its favor.
Tsai’s government, cognizant of the China factor, must have faced immense pressure because of the alliance’s call for a “referendum on independence.”
However, the fight for Taiwanese sovereignty seems to have taken a turn for the better considering some positive overtones from Washington.
The Taiwan Travel Act unanimously passed both chambers of the US Congress and was signed by US President Donald Trump.
Section 1257 of the John S. McCain National Defense Authorization Act for fiscal year 2019 requires that the US secretary of defense, in consultation with appropriate Taiwanese counterparts, conduct a comprehensive assessment of Taiwan’s military forces and provide recommendations to improve its defense, and then, in consultation with the US secretary of state, submit the recommendation to congressional defense committees.
When El Salvador switched diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China, Republican senators Cory Gardner and Marco Rubio, and Democratic senators Ed Markey and Bob Menendez, swiftly introduced the Taiwan Allies International Protection and Enhancement Initiative (TAIPEI) Act with provisions to punish and discourage countries from switching diplomatic ties away from Taiwan.
Last, but not least, many individuals who are hawkish toward China but friendly to Taiwan have been appointed to key positions in Trump’s White House and Cabinet.
Against this backdrop, it is logical and understandable that the long-frustrated advocates of independence demanded a referendum to advance their goal.
Their question probably could be phrased as: If not now, when?
Skeptical of the CCP’s ability to impose tight control over its citizens if the country prospered economically, former US president Bill Clinton once famously quipped that controlling the Internet would be “like trying to nail Jell-O to the wall,” implying that with China’s advancement in the economic and technological sphere, individual liberties and the rule of law under a democratic institution must follow.
This was a common consensus among most Western politicians and China experts, and the consensus by which Western firms transferred their proprietary secrets to their Chinese partners in exchange for market access.
As the deluge of technology transfer continued, China played the not-so-surreptitious game of “hiding its capabilities and biding its time,” enabling its economic and military might to grow by leaps and bounds, while the US saw its manufacturing industrial base hollowed.
When Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) came to power in 2013, Beijing’s aggressiveness intensified sharply. Basic human rights took the complete opposite trajectory as China regressed inexorably instead of moving in the direction of liberalization. These events surprised think tanks, pundits and politicians, causing many to retract their favorable opinion of China.
Abroad, in violation of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, China occupied and militarized islets in the South China Sea, essentially claiming it as its own backyard.
China, through its Belt and Road Initiative, has been extending its political and economic reach from Asia, Africa and the Middle East to Eastern Europe. Its ambitious “Made in China 2025” initiative aims to dominate the US in the technologies of the future, such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, aeronautics and robotics.
The conclusion is that if nothing is done to stop China’s march, it is not hard to imagine that in the not-too-distant future China might replace the US as the world’s dominant superpower.
If such a scenario does come to pass, does Taiwan have any option but to capitulate and accept unification, making the bickering between the alliance and the DPP seem lame and irrelevant by comparison?
The alliance’s rally has come and gone. Let emotions subside and cool heads prevail.
Focus on this incontrovertible fact: China is the undeniable enemy and the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) is her obsequious shill. The DPP is not the enemy — by a long shot.
Let the counterproductive catchphrase “not casting one’s vote in tears” — uttered during a moment of frustration — be only a temporary emotional statement. Above all, no one should let their personal ego take hold — too much is at stake.
Some reassuring news is that the US has initiated a trade war that should check China’s economic prowess. The frequent sailing of US warships through the Strait and the South China Sea demonstrates the US’ resolve in confronting Beijing’s aggressions, which also sparked the deterioration of US-China relations.
The Intermediate-Range Nuclear Force Treaty between the US and Russia prohibited them from developing intermediate-range ballistic missiles. Yet China, not a signatory, has been increasing its missile stockpile.
US National Security Adviser John Bolton said that the main reason the US announced its withdrawal from the treaty is to counter China’s advances.
These events reinforce the idea that the US is determined to confront China and stunt its hegemonic rise. This is a monumental task, and let us hope the US is successful. Taiwan’s security depends on it.
Chin Su is professor emeritus of electrical and computer engineering at Texas A&M University in College Station, Texas. The opinions expressed in this article are his own.
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