News that People First Party (PFP) Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜) might make another run for the presidency could be another bombshell for the embattled Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT), already reeling from the rise of Deputy Legislative Speaker Hung Hsiu-chu (洪秀柱) as the presumptive candidate for January’s presidential election.
Soong has said he would base his decision on whether the KMT would back Hung’s presidential nomination, suggesting that he considers himself a credible challenger among pan-blue camp supporters against Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文).
Such an inference is not without reasons. Several recent opinion polls show Soong still gets strong enough numbers and favorable ratings.
A poll conducted on June 25 and June 26 by Taiwan Indicators Survey Research found that 46.4 percent of respondents said the KMT and the PFP should field Soong as the joint candidate of the pan-blue camp, against 27.8 percent favoring Hung. Pitted against Tsai, Hung trailed by 19.9 percentage points, while Soong trailed by only 9.7 percentage points. In a three-way race between Tsai, Hung and Soong, 37.1 percent said they would vote for Tsai, 24.3 percent for Soong and 20.5 percent for Hung.
In a poll by the Cross-Strait Policy Association earlier last month and one by the DPP last week, Soong also got more than 20 percent support in a Tsai-Hung-Soong race.
According to the DPP’s survey, Tsai’s support decreased from 53 percent to 48.6 percent if the KMT and the PFP jointly nominated Soong. This suggests that Soong would be able to pick up support among pan-blue supporters who disapprove of Hung’s deep-blue ideology and swing voters who would vote for Tsai because there is no other alternative.
While Soong might pull some votes away from Tsai, his participation in the race would more likely benefit Tsai, partly because Soong is not an appealing candidate for traditional DPP voters.
If Soong decides to run, it would be the 73-year-old’s third presidential bid. He also ran for vice president on the KMT ticket in 2004.
In the 2000 presidential election, Soong, running as an independent, narrowly lost to the DPP’s Chen Shui-bian (陳水扁) with 39.3 percent of the vote by a margin of just over 2.5 percentage points, while then-vice president Lien Chan (連戰), the KMT candidate, garnered 23.1 percent. In 2012, Soong’s PFP ticket suffered an embarrassing defeat by receiving just 2.76 percent of the vote, while President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) was re-elected with 51.6 percent of the vote against Tsai’s 45.63 percent.
The public’s support for Soong is not stable and voters might not shift their support to Soong if the so-called “dump-save” effect occurs. Although Soong is not as popular as he was in the early 2000s, the seven years of incompetent governance by the Ma administration has helped revive the public’s memory of Soong’s reputation for effective administration when he was Taiwan provincial governor. Meanwhile, Hung’s push for unification with China made Soong’s proposal for steady development of cross-strait relations in consideration of the will of the Taiwanese more noticeable.
Soong stands a good chance of regaining his political influence in politics if he throws his hat into the ring, regardless of the actual result of the election.
Hon Hai Precision Industry Co founder Terry Gou (郭台銘) might be accused of twice breaking his promises and betraying the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT), then launching a signature drive for himself to stand as a candidate in January’s presidential election, only to turn around and quit the race. It clearly shows that rich people are free to do as they like. If that is so, then Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) Chairman and presidential candidate Ko Wen-je (柯文哲) is the perfect example of a political hack who changes his position as easily as turning the pages of a book. Taiwanese independence supporters
Since the rancorous and histrionic breakup of the planned “blue-white alliance,” polls have shown a massive drop in support for Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) Chairman and presidential candidate Ko Wen-je (柯文哲), whose support rate has dropped to 20 percent. Young people and pan-blue supporters seem to be ditching him. Within a few weeks, Ko has gone from being the most sought after candidate to seeking a comeback. A few months ago, he was the one holding all the cards and calling the shots, with everything in place for a rise to stardom. The Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) was still dealing with doubts
It has been suggested that Vice President William Lai (賴清德), the Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) presidential candidate, is certain to win the presidency now that the “blue-white alliance” plan has fallen apart. Lai had been polling in first place with a healthy margin separating him from the Chinese Nationalist Party’s (KMT) presidential candidate, New Taipei City Mayor Hou You-yi (侯友宜), and Taiwan People’s Party Chairman and presidential candidate Ko Wen-je (柯文哲). Expectations were that he would win handily unless his opponents pooled their resources. Now that the three candidates are in their respective corners, the gloves are likely to come off. Lai
US think tanks, societies and organizations have recently not been shy or hesitant to get involved in Taiwanese matters; they seem to do so with an apparent purpose. Earlier this month, Simona Grano, a senior fellow on Taiwan at the New York-based Asia Society, penned a lengthy and thorough primer on Taiwan’s elections next month. In her primer, Grano noted that Washington had “reservations” about all four (now three after Terry Gou [郭台銘] dropped out) candidates for the presidency. With these reservations, one senses a clear change and expansion of purpose from the Asia Society. Originally formed in 1956 by John
RSS