In 2001, Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) Deputy Legislative Speaker Hung Hsiu-chu (洪秀柱) — then a member of the party’s Central Standing Committee — was the unofficial standard-bearer for a process described as turning the KMT into another version of the deep-blue New Party. She proposed that former KMT president Lee Teng-hui (李登輝) be punished for betraying the party and called for his membership to be revoked.
Who would have thought that almost 15 years later and after the KMT’s drubbing in last year’s nine-in-one elections, Hung again would be the torchbearer for the same process?
The KMT’s deep-blue faction appears to have ingested a large quantity of mind-altering substances and is under Hung’s spell. The similarity between these two phases of the same process is the eradication of “localist elements” within the KMT to forge a new, deep-blue party, bent on rapid unification with China.
After last year’s Sunflower movement and elections, the KMT’s deep-blue faction was in low spirits, but Hung’s proposal of “one China, same interpretation” and her call for a cross-strait peace deal have given the camp a glimmer of hope. Hung now seems to be unstoppable in the race to become the KMT’s presidential candidate.
However, there is a problem with the “one China, same interpretation” proposal: Unless China is explicitly defined as the People’s Republic of China, Beijing will assume the Taiwanese side is advocating de jure independence. Aiming to brush off accusations of rapid unification, Hung says her proposal would make China “accept that the Republic of China exists.” This is clearly a “two China” policy, a position that Beijing could never accept.
The Sunflower movement dealt a bitter blow to Chinese leadership. Beijing adjusted its Taiwan policy, choosing more subtle methods, rather than attempt to directly challenge mainstream Taiwanese public opinion. Beijing also no longer views the KMT as Taiwan’s sole spokesperson. Beijing is aware that Hung’s “one China, same interpretation” would push the KMT toward the rapid unification end of the political spectrum and result in catastrophic failure for the party in next year’s presidential and legislative elections.
The best method for dealing with the cross-strait issue is a policy of “creative ambiguity,” refraining from stirring the hornets’ nest of independence versus unification, so leaders on both sides of the Taiwan Strait do not feel forced to put their cards on the table. The US takes the same view.
Everyone wishes to prioritize the economy and no one wants to deal with “military liberation.” Therefore, Hung’s impetuous rapid-unification policy is simply throwing a bone to her rabid pack of deep-blue supporters.
The KMT’s days are numbered. The party’s biggest error was in allowing President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) to continually trample over public opinion, annihilate localist KMT members and pursue a fast-paced move toward unification with China.
Hung is just Ma’s shadow. If the party endorses her as presidential candidate, next year’s elections might be curtain time for the KMT.
If, on the other hand, People First Party (PFP) Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜) pairs with Legislative Speaker Wang Jin-pyng (王金平) for the pan-blue camp, Tsai could face a difficult battle, the outcome of which nobody could predict. Wang would launch his localist power base and join forces with the PFP under Soong. Voters would face a difficult choice: Soong and Tsai have mainstream support.
When the KMT disintegrates, its localist faction might find a new home in the PFP. Perhaps Soong could even change the name of his party to the KMT.
Allen Houng is a professor at National Yang-Ming University’s Institute of Philosophy of Mind and Cognition.
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