While many people seem convinced that the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) will defeat the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) in next year’s presidential election, the DPP must stay humble and cautious, because its biggest obstacle may not come from the outside, but from within.
Initial polls conducted by a number of organizations in the wake of the DPP’s successes in the nine-in-one municipal elections in November last year, in which its candidates were elected in four of the nation’s six special municipalities — plus the election of Taipei Mayor Ko Wen-je (柯文哲), who had no party affiliation, but was supported by the DPP — showed that many people, regardless of their political preferences, believed that the DPP would win the presidency.
However, the latest poll figures released by the Taiwan Brain Trust, a pro-DPP think tank, seem to be sending a warning signal to the party.
According to the polls, the DPP’s support plateaued immediately after the nine-in-one elections, and remained more or less at that level until this month, when the approval ratings for both the party and DPP Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) dropped, and their disapproval ratings rose. Interestingly, the drop is the sharpest among DPP supporters, by nearly 13 percentage points.
On the other hand, though the majority of respondents still prefer the DPP over the KMT, the latter’s approval rating has been increasing, though only slightly.
This might show that, while highly averse to the KMT, people hold high expectations for the DPP, and the decline in support may be due to negative news about the party in the past months, including the involvement of DPP councilors in alleged vote-buying scandals for council speakership elections, as well as finger-pointing among DPP politicians as they compete for party nominations in next year’s legislative election.
This may explain why the decline in support is most obvious among DPP supporters, who are traditionally more ideal-driven, meaning that they vote for the party not because of any immediate benefits or interpersonal network they may derive from the party, but because of its ideals.
Previous election results suggest a similar conclusion, as KMT politicians embroiled in scandals might still win elections easily, while DPP supporters have been quick to ditch DPP candidates who could not uphold certain values and ideals.
As for the slight decline in approval ratings for the DPP chairperson, it may be because, while people still have hopes that she could lead the country, they have been slightly disappointed at Tsai’s ability to handle the party’s problems, and at her reluctance to give more than “we will look into it further” answers to questions concerning national policies.
With the DPP presidential nomination seemingly completed, and nominations for legislative candidates on the way, it may be time for different leaders and factions within the DPP to recover from the damage done during primaries, and stay united for the party’s return to power. There is an old saying in Taiwan’s political scene that “a DPP in solidarity may not necessarily win, but a divided DPP will definitely lose.”
The DPP certainly has a big chance to win, but it has to stay humble and cautious, and quickly come up with policy proposals to convince more people to trust the party enough to vote for it.
Concerns that the US might abandon Taiwan are often overstated. While US President Donald Trump’s handling of Ukraine raised unease in Taiwan, it is crucial to recognize that Taiwan is not Ukraine. Under Trump, the US views Ukraine largely as a European problem, whereas the Indo-Pacific region remains its primary geopolitical focus. Taipei holds immense strategic value for Washington and is unlikely to be treated as a bargaining chip in US-China relations. Trump’s vision of “making America great again” would be directly undermined by any move to abandon Taiwan. Despite the rhetoric of “America First,” the Trump administration understands the necessity of
US President Donald Trump’s challenge to domestic American economic-political priorities, and abroad to the global balance of power, are not a threat to the security of Taiwan. Trump’s success can go far to contain the real threat — the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) surge to hegemony — while offering expanded defensive opportunities for Taiwan. In a stunning affirmation of the CCP policy of “forceful reunification,” an obscene euphemism for the invasion of Taiwan and the destruction of its democracy, on March 13, 2024, the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) used Chinese social media platforms to show the first-time linkage of three new
If you had a vision of the future where China did not dominate the global car industry, you can kiss those dreams goodbye. That is because US President Donald Trump’s promised 25 percent tariff on auto imports takes an ax to the only bits of the emerging electric vehicle (EV) supply chain that are not already dominated by Beijing. The biggest losers when the levies take effect this week would be Japan and South Korea. They account for one-third of the cars imported into the US, and as much as two-thirds of those imported from outside North America. (Mexico and Canada, while
I have heard people equate the government’s stance on resisting forced unification with China or the conditional reinstatement of the military court system with the rise of the Nazis before World War II. The comparison is absurd. There is no meaningful parallel between the government and Nazi Germany, nor does such a mindset exist within the general public in Taiwan. It is important to remember that the German public bore some responsibility for the horrors of the Holocaust. Post-World War II Germany’s transitional justice efforts were rooted in a national reckoning and introspection. Many Jews were sent to concentration camps not