While many people seem convinced that the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) will defeat the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) in next year’s presidential election, the DPP must stay humble and cautious, because its biggest obstacle may not come from the outside, but from within.
Initial polls conducted by a number of organizations in the wake of the DPP’s successes in the nine-in-one municipal elections in November last year, in which its candidates were elected in four of the nation’s six special municipalities — plus the election of Taipei Mayor Ko Wen-je (柯文哲), who had no party affiliation, but was supported by the DPP — showed that many people, regardless of their political preferences, believed that the DPP would win the presidency.
However, the latest poll figures released by the Taiwan Brain Trust, a pro-DPP think tank, seem to be sending a warning signal to the party.
According to the polls, the DPP’s support plateaued immediately after the nine-in-one elections, and remained more or less at that level until this month, when the approval ratings for both the party and DPP Chairperson Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) dropped, and their disapproval ratings rose. Interestingly, the drop is the sharpest among DPP supporters, by nearly 13 percentage points.
On the other hand, though the majority of respondents still prefer the DPP over the KMT, the latter’s approval rating has been increasing, though only slightly.
This might show that, while highly averse to the KMT, people hold high expectations for the DPP, and the decline in support may be due to negative news about the party in the past months, including the involvement of DPP councilors in alleged vote-buying scandals for council speakership elections, as well as finger-pointing among DPP politicians as they compete for party nominations in next year’s legislative election.
This may explain why the decline in support is most obvious among DPP supporters, who are traditionally more ideal-driven, meaning that they vote for the party not because of any immediate benefits or interpersonal network they may derive from the party, but because of its ideals.
Previous election results suggest a similar conclusion, as KMT politicians embroiled in scandals might still win elections easily, while DPP supporters have been quick to ditch DPP candidates who could not uphold certain values and ideals.
As for the slight decline in approval ratings for the DPP chairperson, it may be because, while people still have hopes that she could lead the country, they have been slightly disappointed at Tsai’s ability to handle the party’s problems, and at her reluctance to give more than “we will look into it further” answers to questions concerning national policies.
With the DPP presidential nomination seemingly completed, and nominations for legislative candidates on the way, it may be time for different leaders and factions within the DPP to recover from the damage done during primaries, and stay united for the party’s return to power. There is an old saying in Taiwan’s political scene that “a DPP in solidarity may not necessarily win, but a divided DPP will definitely lose.”
The DPP certainly has a big chance to win, but it has to stay humble and cautious, and quickly come up with policy proposals to convince more people to trust the party enough to vote for it.
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