Distinguishing diplomatic rhetoric from official policy is never easy. However, it is especially difficult in China, where the government’s actions so often fail to match its statements. Given this, it is worth asking whether the latest slogan adopted by Chinese officials — “Asia for Asians” — is merely nationalist posturing for domestic consumption or a signal of a genuine policy shift.
The most authoritative reference to an “Asia for Asians” occurred in May, during Chinese President Xi Jinping’s (習近平) keynote speech at the Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia. In a carefully crafted statement, Xi laid out China’s vision for a new regional security order — one in which, as the slogan suggests, Asians are in charge.
According to Xi, at the fundamental level, “it is for the people of Asia to run the affairs of Asia, solve the problems of Asia and uphold the security of Asia.”
He said that fortunately, Asians have the “capability and wisdom” to build peace and security in the region through cooperation.
This vision, of course, entails an overhaul of the Asian security structure, with a drastically reduced role for the US. Indeed, Xi implicitly criticized the existing US-dominated security architecture in Asia as stuck in the Cold War, and characterized “military alliance targeted at a third party” as “not conducive to maintaining common security.”
Since the speech, lower-level officials and the Chinese media have reiterated similar lines.
At first glance, this vision seems entirely reasonable; after all, most countries prefer to manage domestic and regional affairs without the meddling of outside powers. However, Xi’s statement marked a significant departure from China’s long-standing position on the US’ presence in the Asia-Pacific region.
Since the US-China rapprochement four decades ago, China has maintained a studied ambiguity regarding the US’ role as the guarantor of Asia’s security. China’s pragmatic leaders knew that the US presence helped to contain the Soviet Union (and subsequently Russia), prevented Japan from rearming and kept sea-lanes open. They also recognized that they lacked the power to challenge the US-led security order or offer a feasible alternative.
This may be changing.
Although some analysts remain convinced that Xi’s “Asia for Asians” line is an empty attempt to bolster his nationalist credentials, an equally strong case can be made that it signifies a genuine policy shift. While the argument is not overwhelming, it should not be dismissed out of hand.
The most conclusive evidence of Xi’s readiness to challenge the established order lies in the economic sphere. Most notably, China has established new development institutions, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the new Silk Road Fund, to which it will channel billions of US dollars — clear challenges to the established Western-dominated multilateral institutions.
However, on the security front, China has made much less headway in turning its “Asia for Asians” vision into reality. To be sure, it has acquired some military capabilities to deter the US from intervening in the Taiwan Strait or the South China Sea, and it has improved its security cooperation with Russia and Central Asian countries through the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. However, such modest gains are more than offset by the security setbacks that China has suffered as a result of its assertiveness in regional territorial disputes.
Indeed, after many months of increasingly forceful military moves — most notably, the unilateral declaration of an air-defense identification zone covering a large swath of the South China Sea, including disputed territories — China’s ties with Japan reached an all-time low. Concerned Southeast Asian countries have been entreating the US to remain in the region as a counterweight to China.
Underlying the “Asia for Asians” trope may be China’s belief that the US, not its own behavior, is to blame for its neighbors’ defiance. Some Chinese strategists believe that the US is using Asian states, particularly Japan, Vietnam and the Philippines, as pawns to contain China. If this perspective has prevailed in the internal policy debate, Chinese leaders, including Xi, could have reached the fateful conclusion that, on balance, the US’ security presence in Asia directly threatens Chinese interests and must be eliminated.
That would be a grave strategic error, based on a fundamental misreading of Asian security dynamics. Most of China’s neighbors fear an unconstrained Chinese hegemon — and, if the US security presence were eliminated, that is precisely what they would face. “Asia for Asians” would be “Asia for the Chinese.”
It is difficult to imagine that Chinese policymakers, known for their sophistication and realism, could be pursuing a strategy that is not only unlikely to gain support from fellow Asians, but also is guaranteed to spark conflict with the US. Given this, it is likely — indeed, desirable — that “Asia for Asians” will remain a mere slogan.
In fact, Xi has lately toned down his description of China’s aims, recently telling Chinese Communist Party leaders: “We should increase China’s soft power, give a good Chinese narrative and better communicate China’s message to the world.”
However, even as rhetoric, the phrase “Asia for Asians” is problematic for historical reasons. In the 1930s, Japanese militarists used the idea of the “Greater East Asia Co-Prosperity Sphere” as a cover for their imperial ambitions and conquests.
The slogan was widely ridiculed, particularly in China, for its transparent absurdity.
This may help to explain the lukewarm reception that the concept of “Asia for Asians” has received this time around. The smartest thing for Chinese leaders to do would be to drop it, once and for all.
Minxin Pei is a professor of government at Claremont McKenna College and a non-resident senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States.
Copyright: Project Syndicate
The ultimate end of a situation in which communists are in charge of a capitalist economy is economic depression, with China’s economic woes the prime example. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) regime has suspended monthly reports on youth unemployment, which had previously been at a record high, going beyond 20 percent and rising. It is often joked about in academic circles that when a national laboratory has made a great discovery, the institution will quickly call a news conference to announce it to the world, but when the research has been a total failure, the institution will keep it under wraps. The
During World War II, German U-boats almost succeeded in bringing Britain to its knees. US Navy submarines saw their greatest success against Japan with the sinking of more than 500 vessels in the Taiwan Strait. The complete blockade of Japan with US submarines, US Navy aircraft and an aerial mining program destabilized Japan’s economy and created severe shortages of food, materials for weapons production and fuel. On April 2, 1982, Argentine forces used submarines to invade the Falkland Islands, a British territory, sparking one of the largest conflicts since World War II. In response to Argentine aggression, the British government quickly
The EU is talking about admitting new members again, after years of blanking Balkan neighbors. The US is strengthening security ties with India’s authoritarian leader and assorted Asia-Pacific “strongmen.” Even the Saudi Arabian outcast, Prince Mohammad bin Salman, is back in Western favor. China is courting African and Arab countries, and the “Global South” with seductive talk of a brave new multipolar world, an expanded BRICS and an egalitarian G20. Ostracized Russia clings ever more desperately to Beijing, North Korea and like-minded rogue states. Say hello to the “new world order,” an ongoing, radical reconstruction of the existing global strategic, legal and
On Sept. 13, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) concluded its fifth annual joint training exercise with Singapore’s armed forces. In March, the PLA conducted joint training with Cambodia’s army. In February, BRICS members China, Russia and South Africa conducted joint naval drills. These exercises were all part of Beijing’s military diplomacy campaign. Military diplomacy deploys armed forces for foreign policy goals. Interaction between a nation’s military and foreign entities can achieve diplomatic goals and bolster security. China is increasingly leveraging its military for engagement and diplomatic advantages. China’s exercises facilitate overseas training for its troops and provide practice in deploying and