Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping (習近平), Chinese President Hu Jintao’s (胡錦濤) likely successor, is now on a visit to the US. Widely regarded as the next Chinese president and general secretary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), this visit will be scrutinized by the US, Taiwan and the international community.
US visits by Chinese leaders or leaders-in-waiting are major events. When former Chinese president Jiang Zemin (江澤民) visited the US in 1997, China was on the cusp of its rise, just starting to open up. By the time Hu visited in 2002, in the capacity of vice president and prospective successor to the presidency, China was already a regional power. Things have moved apace and with this latest visit, China is already an international power, threatening to compete in the same league with the US in terms of military presence, economics and foreign relations.
However, on the eve of Xi’s visit, a piece of news broke, the aftershocks of which are being felt both in China and abroad. The news was that Wang Lijun (王立軍), Chongqing’s vice mayor and right-hand man of Chongqing CCP Secretary Bo Xilai (薄熙來), presented himself at the US consulate in Chengdu, apparently seeking political asylum.
Bo is part of the political elite in China, one of the second generation of party big beasts known as the “princelings” (太子黨). He is known in Chongqing for cleaning up the city, promoting the communist cause — reviving the singing of Mao Zedong (毛澤東)-era songs — and fighting corruption. Wang has been a major figure in the latter effort, serving as chief of police. In a single day he oversaw the sacking on the spot of 2,000 to 3,000 police officers. The former police chief, Wen Qiang (文強), was found guilty of a litany of corruption offenses and promptly executed. This operation made Bo a hero in Chongqing. It also secured him a place on the list for candidates to join the CCP Standing Committee later this year at the party’s 18th National Congress.
Wang presented himself at the US consulate as he did not want to go the same way as Wen. He remained there for a day, while Washington and Beijing discussed how best to contain the fallout in the interests of both countries, before being taken to Beijing for what was euphemistically called “a rest.”
Speculation about the matter is rife online. Some have suggested this was the result of a struggle between Bo and Guangdong CCP Secretary Wang Yang (汪洋) for a place on the Standing Committee. Others believe Hu is behind all this, to rein in Bo’s blatant ambition and to clear away any obstacles to the orderly succession of power.
The transfer of power in China proceeds according to a set of inscrutable principles and when a political matter gets in the way it is of major consequence. It happened with Mao and the Lin Biao (林彪) incident of Sept 13, 1976; it happened with Deng Xiaoping (鄧小平) in the 1986 Hu Yaobang (胡耀邦) incident; in 1989, when Zhao Ziyang (趙紫陽) was removed from office for opposing the use of force against students in Tiananmen Square; when Chen Xitong (陳希同) was removed from office during Jiang’s time; and in the dismissal of Chen Liangyu (陳良宇) under Hu.
Judging by the ferocity of power struggles in Beijing, China is evidently still a totalitarian dictatorship — a long, long way from being a civilized country that respects human rights, democracy and the rule of law.
Whatever the driving force behind the Bo Xilai incident, it has already cast a shadow over Xi’s anticipated succession.
In their recent op-ed “Trump Should Rein In Taiwan” in Foreign Policy magazine, Christopher Chivvis and Stephen Wertheim argued that the US should pressure President William Lai (賴清德) to “tone it down” to de-escalate tensions in the Taiwan Strait — as if Taiwan’s words are more of a threat to peace than Beijing’s actions. It is an old argument dressed up in new concern: that Washington must rein in Taipei to avoid war. However, this narrative gets it backward. Taiwan is not the problem; China is. Calls for a so-called “grand bargain” with Beijing — where the US pressures Taiwan into concessions
The term “assassin’s mace” originates from Chinese folklore, describing a concealed weapon used by a weaker hero to defeat a stronger adversary with an unexpected strike. In more general military parlance, the concept refers to an asymmetric capability that targets a critical vulnerability of an adversary. China has found its modern equivalent of the assassin’s mace with its high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) weapons, which are nuclear warheads detonated at a high altitude, emitting intense electromagnetic radiation capable of disabling and destroying electronics. An assassin’s mace weapon possesses two essential characteristics: strategic surprise and the ability to neutralize a core dependency.
Chinese President and Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Chairman Xi Jinping (習近平) said in a politburo speech late last month that his party must protect the “bottom line” to prevent systemic threats. The tone of his address was grave, revealing deep anxieties about China’s current state of affairs. Essentially, what he worries most about is systemic threats to China’s normal development as a country. The US-China trade war has turned white hot: China’s export orders have plummeted, Chinese firms and enterprises are shutting up shop, and local debt risks are mounting daily, causing China’s economy to flag externally and hemorrhage internally. China’s
During the “426 rally” organized by the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and the Taiwan People’s Party under the slogan “fight green communism, resist dictatorship,” leaders from the two opposition parties framed it as a battle against an allegedly authoritarian administration led by President William Lai (賴清德). While criticism of the government can be a healthy expression of a vibrant, pluralistic society, and protests are quite common in Taiwan, the discourse of the 426 rally nonetheless betrayed troubling signs of collective amnesia. Specifically, the KMT, which imposed 38 years of martial law in Taiwan from 1949 to 1987, has never fully faced its