Military analysts have been slowly coming to grips with Beijing’s decision in December to dispatch naval forces to the Gulf of Aden to combat piracy — China’s first deployment of such forces abroad since the 15th century.
China’s decision was part of its goal to play a role commensurate with its status as a “great power,” US National War College professor Bernard Cole said on March 4 during testimony before the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission.
Aside from considerations of image — a show of force to consolidate the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) grip on power — the mission was meant to safeguard China’s international interests.
Furthermore, by participating in a UN-sanctioned, multinational effort to combat piracy at sea, China is sending a signal that it is willing to — and now capable of — being a responsible stakeholder.
By interacting with naval forces of other countries, making port calls abroad and securing transit agreements, China is strengthening the image of a “peaceful rise” and “peaceful development” advocated by Chinese President Hu Jintao (胡錦濤) and other Chinese leaders.
What this mission also tells us is that for the first time, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy is capable of sustaining task group operations outside its waters for an extended period of time. The current deployment consists of three ships and about 800 crew, and Beijing has announced that it could be relieved by a similar group after three months if the situation warrants it.
Rather than content itself with port calls and “showing the flag” in international waters, the PLA Navy is engaging in actual combat and, in Cole’s assessment, is performing in a “well-planned, professionally competent fashion.”
Cole then told the commission that Beijing’s “considerable expenditure of resources” in the anti-piracy mission could also stem from its growing confidence that the Taiwan contingency — until now the focus of the PLA — is well under control and that cross-strait talks initiated after President Ma Ying-jeou (馬英九) and the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) came to power last year have made it possible for the PLA to operate in other theaters.
While this may be true for the Navy, Cole’s assessment fails to mention that since Ma came into office, the PLA has continued to increase the number of missiles it aims at Taiwan and has not relented in its vow to use force against Taiwan if necessary.
More likely, the deployment to the Arabian Sea was an opportunity — and Cole only mentioned this in passing — to gain precious combat experience. In other words, by joining the efforts, it was killing two birds with one stone.
There is no doubt that the Gulf of Aden mission is contributing to the transformation of the PLA Navy from a coastal defense force to one capable of operating offensively at long range and for an extended period of time.
The mission is also increasing the capabilities of the Navy should it be called upon to use force in the Taiwan Strait. The deployment will have given it firsthand experience of other navies at work, during which commitment we can expect that intelligence will have been collected and analyzed back in Beijing.
Yes, China is helping fight piracy in international waters and appears to be doing a good job. But the battle it is gearing up for is still in the future — and much closer to home.
President-elect Biden and his team soon will confront a raging pandemic, a severe economic crisis, demands for progress in addressing racial injustices, intensifying climate-induced crises, and strained relations with allies and partners in many parts of the world. They will be oriented to view China as America’s greatest geostrategic challenge, but not the most immediate threat to the health and prosperity of the American people. Amidst this daunting inheritance, US-Taiwan relations will stand out as a bright spot, an example of progress that should be sustained. There are strong reasons for optimism about the continued development of US-Taiwan relations in the
Beijing’s imposition of the Hong Kong National Security Law and a number of other democratic and human rights issues continue to strain relations between the UK and China. The tense situation has significantly decreased the likelihood of British Royal Navy ships being able to continue their practice of docking in Hong Kong’s harbor for resupply — a not altogether unpredictable development. In a Nov. 19 online speech to parliament, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced that the HMS Queen Elizabeth aircraft carrier would next year lead a British and allied task group to the Mediterranean, Indian Ocean and East Asia. Johnson
Americans tend to think of Vietnam as a war that split the US rather than as a country in today’s world. Vietnamese are of course way past that. The country does not have any US Electoral College votes, but if it did, they would be cast enthusiastically for US President Donald Trump. When I told a group of university students at a park in Ho Chi Minh City that I was from the US, they asked: “Do you know why we love Trump?” “Uhhh, is it because he hates China?” I asked back. “Yeah,” the group responded in unison. With a 1,000-year history of
China’s Taiwan Affairs Office on Wednesday announced that Shih Cheng-ping (施正屏), a retired National Taiwan Normal University professor, who Beijing says is a spy, had been sentenced to four years in prison for espionage crimes. The news followed last week’s announcement by Beijing that it is compiling a “wanted list” of pro-independence “Taiwan secessionists” that would be used to “punish” those blacklisted under its national security laws. Taken together, the announcements show that Beijing’s Taiwan policy under Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) is becoming increasingly erratic, uncoordinated and poorly thought out, which raises serious questions about Xi’s leadership ability. Shih went missing
RSS