Tomorrow, Americans will have decided who their next president will be. In the last few weeks, US leaders and citizens have had their interest almost entirely focused on the country’s economy and who will fix its problems.
During the upcoming months, Taiwanese will also continue to focus their attention on the economy and on the efforts of the new president to change their relationship with China. Any changes in the US-Taiwan relationship, however, will not take place soon.
Taiwan’s government has already started several initiatives that it hopes will open the nation to China’s potential investments. Though a few agreements have been made, they have gained little of what was expected. Some might develop with the visit of Association for Relations Across the Taiwan Strait (ARATS) Chairman Chen Yunlin (陳雲林) to Taiwan. If this week’s meeting is just a continuation of the first meeting between ARATS and the Straits Exchange Foundation in China earlier this year, it is not likely to allay the present worries of the Taiwanese.
In the preliminary discussion for the second meeting, it was apparently agreed that the present number of charter flights per week will be increased to 110, while their destinations in China will be increased to 20. Flight times from Taiwan to northern China will be substantially shortened, while routes to southern China will see little change. There will also be maritime transportation between four seaports in Taiwan and two in China.
There may be other agreements, but for the most part, they would also stick to business, not political matters. As shown by the recent anti-China rally in Taipei, Taiwanese are not only unhappy with economic problems but also with such sensitive issues as the country’s name, sovereignty and democracy.
Their concern has increased after the government suggested possible changes in cross-strait relations. In developing the relationship with China, it is necessary for Taiwanese to understand what is being considered.
The establishment of a good cross-strait relationship will be difficult and arduous. If it continues, there will inevitably be changes within Taiwan and China in the process.
At this time, Americans are keenly interested in the forthcoming presidential election. A great many of the “Taiwan experts” are either involved in a political party or are trying to make their views known directly. The huge number of domestic issues that are involved in the process overshadow any other country’s problems. Inevitably, the issues and the individuals in the new government are likely to wait some time before focusing on Taiwan.
In the last two or three weeks, many have been discussing the possibility of a cross-strait annexation of Taiwan by China as long as there is no war in the Taiwan Strait. Others have talked about a possible “confederation” between China and Taiwan. Many others press for an independent Taiwan, no matter how long it takes. Others talk about the need for the continuation of strong relations with the US and other East Asian countries, especially Japan.
All of this will continue up to and beyond the inauguration of the new US government in January. Given the time it takes to engage in cross-strait talks, not too much change will have taken place and all of us will have to wait and see how cross-strait talks develop — and how the US handles it.
Nat Bellocchi is a former chairman of the American Institute in Taiwan and a special adviser to the Liberty Times Group. The views expressed in this article are his own.
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