All Taiwanese are hoping that Taiwan will once again flourish on the global market, that its economy and trade will be invigorated and that improvement in living standards will be sped up.
It is unrealistic for Taiwan to close itself off from the Chinese market. Taiwan’s China-led marginalization will not come to an end if the country shuts itself off from the realignment of international political and economic decision-making and only passively reacts to global climate change and the increasingly heated competition for global resources.
The rise of mammoth economies like China and India are causing unprecedented pressures on the worldwide political and economic system.
Planning a response to shifts in power around the world is the first challenge Taiwan must deal with.
These changes are forcing governments to adjust their organizational and policymaking structures to account for the newly developing countries.
The World Bank has appointed the Chinese economist Justin Lin (林毅夫) as its vice president and chief economist, and the IMF decided this month to adjust the voting share of its member states, increasing China’s and India’s voting shares to 3.81 percent and 2.34 percent respectively.
Countries like Japan, Germany, India and Brazil still hope to become permanent members of the UN Security Council.
Yet in the past eight years, Taiwan, a WTO member since 2001, has not fared very well in this realignment.
If the new government can’t come up with a clear strategy, Taiwan, which must follow international policy it does not participate in deciding, will be unable to cast off its marginalization.
Taiwan doesn’t even seem to care about the structure of the international systems that decide the future of its development.
The response mechanism for global climate change, for example, could be key to deciding a future realignment of power between states.
The success of this mechanism could decide the direction of development and economic growth. Failure could very possibly result in international competition for limited resources.
Taiwan’s policy seems to consist of passively accepting the global trend toward carbon dioxide emissions reductions while neglecting to estimate the impact on the ability to maintain current standards of living.
To reach the goal of reducing global greenhouse gas emissions by half by 2050, Japan will have to reduce emissions by 85 percent.
In a situation where it doesn’t have the necessary emissions reduction technology, response measures or political plans, Taiwan only has so much time to respond to the ensuing pressure if the world lays down post-Kyoto carbon emissions reduction standards.
Whether or not new standards for countering global climate change are set, the imbalance in global resources and food supply caused by climate change can only further intensify conflict resulting from competition for resources.
Because of climate change, wheat, corn, rice and dairy production are falling, and in another two or three years it will become difficult to meet global needs.
The snow storms in China early this year affected China’s grain production, causing increases in global grain prices.
The fast economic development in China, India and Brazil further adds to the pressures of supply and demand on global energy, raw materials and food.
It is estimated that in 2030, the global demand for resources will be 50 percent higher than now, almost 40 percent of which is attributed to the economic growth of these three countries.
China’s rise might bring a lot of business opportunities for Taiwan, but it could also intensify global competition for energy, raw material and food.
Will Taiwan be able to capitalize as global prices for raw materials increase, or will it become a victim of a global competition for resources?
Ignorance may lead to isolationism, but slogans won’t put an end to stagnation.
Ignoring the price of global climate change or the global political and economic framework and closing itself off to the realignment of international political and economic decision making will not turn around Taiwan’s increasing marginalization.
Temporary relief won’t silence public complaints.
The government should not be satisfied with merely following the global model for economics and trade.
It should be creative, grasp opportunities, strive for strong support and actively take part in the process of building global economic and trade models to establish a basis for Taiwan’s sustainable development.
Chen Hsin-chih is an associate professor in the Department of Political Science at National Cheng Kung University.
Translated by Anna Stiggelbout
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