Taiwan's voters have changed government for only the second time, re-installing the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) in the presidency. KMT candidate Ma Ying-jeou (
Public dissatisfaction with the DPP's political record and consequent losses in January's legislative elections sapped party morale, and this was reflected in the results of the poll, despite a narrowing in the performance of the candidates.
The key issues in the last days of the campaign were the "one China market" and the problem of China's oppression, as seen in Tibet. The DPP had seemed to score points by focusing on the possible threat posed by Chinese laborers and poor quality products entering Taiwan, but ultimately the scare tactics failed to produce the effect the DPP had hoped for.
In more direct language, the electorate rejected the DPP's campaign and reverted to the approximate 60-40 pan-blue/pan-green split of the 2000 election. That is, the 10 percent of voters that the DPP stole from the KMT in 2004 have returned to the fold.
The cruel truths of China's oppression in Tibet -- as well as Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao's (
Ma will have an easier job as president than outgoing President Chen Shui-bian (
As the opposition, the DPP has almost no real power with which to stop Ma's executive momentum. Single-party dominance in a country struggling to fortify institutional checks and balances poses a threat, and the DPP will need to work hard to monitor erosion of the line between party and state.
The KMT should be especially cautious when dealing with the cross-strait problem. Cross-strait relations should be improved, but implementation of the "one China" principle remains dangerous.
There are numerous reasons for this. For now, this will suffice: The Dalai Lama has repeatedly expressed that he seeks real autonomy for Tibet rather than independence, but still China has dealt with the situation forcefully and brutally.
Let this serve as a stark reminder for Ma: Taiwan's long-term possibilities must not be sacrificed for short-term economic benefits, and toeing China's line offers no guarantee of a peaceful outcome.
Once Ma assumes office, he should begin to repair the increasingly worn US-Taiwan relationship and facilitate cooperation with Japan to reduce the Chinese threat. Hundreds of Chinese missiles threaten this country and Taiwan's president cannot sit idly by as their numbers grow.
Ma must immediately begin to make up for the arms deficit resulting from eight years of KMT budget boycotts. Only real might can serve as a backup to meaningful cross-strait negotiations.
Elbridge Colby, America’s Under Secretary of Defense for Policy, is the most influential voice on defense strategy in the Second Trump Administration. For insight into his thinking, one could do no better than read his thoughts on the defense of Taiwan which he gathered in a book he wrote in 2021. The Strategy of Denial, is his contemplation of China’s rising hegemony in Asia and on how to deter China from invading Taiwan. Allowing China to absorb Taiwan, he wrote, would open the entire Indo-Pacific region to Chinese preeminence and result in a power transition that would place America’s prosperity
A few weeks ago in Kaohsiung, tech mogul turned political pundit Robert Tsao (曹興誠) joined Western Washington University professor Chen Shih-fen (陳時奮) for a public forum in support of Taiwan’s recall campaign. Kaohsiung, already the most Taiwanese independence-minded city in Taiwan, was not in need of a recall. So Chen took a different approach: He made the case that unification with China would be too expensive to work. The argument was unusual. Most of the time, we hear that Taiwan should remain free out of respect for democracy and self-determination, but cost? That is not part of the usual script, and
All 24 Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) lawmakers and suspended Hsinchu Mayor Ann Kao (高虹安), formerly of the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP), survived recall elections against them on Saturday, in a massive loss to the unprecedented mass recall movement, as well as to the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) that backed it. The outcome has surprised many, as most analysts expected that at least a few legislators would be ousted. Over the past few months, dedicated and passionate civic groups gathered more than 1 million signatures to recall KMT lawmakers, an extraordinary achievement that many believed would be enough to remove at
Behind the gloating, the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) must be letting out a big sigh of relief. Its powerful party machine saved the day, but it took that much effort just to survive a challenge mounted by a humble group of active citizens, and in areas where the KMT is historically strong. On the other hand, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) must now realize how toxic a brand it has become to many voters. The campaigners’ amateurism is what made them feel valid and authentic, but when the DPP belatedly inserted itself into the campaign, it did more harm than good. The
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