As President Gloria Arroyo of the Philippines fights for her political life, there's a tendency to think her story only concerns her nation's 86 million people.
After all, the Philippine economy is much smaller than that of Thailand, the epicenter of the Asian crisis eight years ago.
Investors also have become savvier about viewing economies independently, something few did prior to 1997. So, regional leaders and investors don't seem overly concerned with events in Manila.
Yet Arroyo is at the center of a trend of vital importance throughout Asia: An increasing focus on corruption.
Not since 1997, when Asian business became associated with "crony capitalism" has there been so much focus on cleaning things up. If the effort gains momentum, it may result in healthier Asian economies and a more level playing field for debt and equity investors the world over.
Arroyo's is an extreme case, and one that's playing out graphically in the media. She is the subject of impeachment proceedings amid allegations she cheated in last year's election. Her husband and their congressman son also face allegations of links to illegal gambling.
Street Protests
While her ouster may destabilize Philippine markets, the brouhaha is shining a spotlight on corruption and how it impedes growth from filtering down to the people who most need it. The Philippine masses, tired of politically connected people getting all the economic benefits, are taking to the streets in protest.
Why does this matter to investors? Less corruption may allow consumers a bigger share of an economy's growth, allowing them to consume more. Bond investors may enjoy more legal certainty of being repaid. Greater corporate transparency and independence from politicians would serve equity aficionados.
It used to be that Asian leaders could ensure their popularity with strong growth rates and steady gains in per capita income. That formula kept president Suharto in power in Indonesia for 32 years -- until his ouster in 1998 -- and it's doing just fine by China. Beijing's bargain with its 1.3 billion people is this: We give you fast growth, you don't challenge us.
Yet more and more, popularity is being based on how aggressively leaders attack corruption. Take the once wildly popular Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, whose support has fallen below 50 percent. Along with accelerating inflation, Thais are disenchanted by corruption allegations in Bangkok.
Fair Share
Call it the power of the ballot box. Now that Asian economies are booming again, average voters are looking for their share of the prosperity. Increasingly, many are realizing that corruption is a major reason why the gap between rich and poor is widening.
In Malaysia, Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi has quietly worked to tackle corruption, lift standards of public integrity and revamp state-linked companies to attract investors, yet critics are pointing fingers. They include former finance minister Anwar Ibrahim.
Abdullah's "pronouncements have been reassuring, and I have given my complete support for the measures," Anwar said last week. "Unfortunately, the general perception and the facts prove that corruption is now worse than before."
True or not, there's some statistical evidence of that.
Corruption Index
Malaysia's score in the annual corruption perceptions index published by Transparency International dropped to 5 out of 10 last year, compared with 5.2 in 2003.
All this should be a wake-up call to leaders throughout Asia.
Now that the region has recovered from the events of 1997 and growth rates are higher than those in the US or Europe, it's time to work on engineering better growth, not just faster growth.
From Jakarta to Seoul, from Manila to New Delhi and from Beijing to here in Kuala Lumpur, there's a tendency to mask challenges with headline growth rates. They are a form of advertising as well as a diversion. Rapid GDP gets investors' attention and papers over economic cracks.
Asia doesn't need 10 percent growth -- it needs more equitable growth. For decades now, this region has made the mistake of measuring progress with GDP or rising stocks. A better gauge is how the lives of people from the richest to the poorest are changed.
Paradox
Corruption gets much of the blame. In Indonesia, for example, it results in the "paradox of plenty." Too often, citizens of resource-rich nations like Indonesia fail to prosper from underground treasures like oil, diamonds and gold. Politicians and well-connected businesspeople get rich, while ignoring the development needs of the majority.
The good news is that Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono is trying to tackle the problem. Corruption costs his economy the foreign direct investment it needs and makes it harder for the nation's 40 million unemployed to benefit from 5 percent plus growth.
The best news of all, though, is that pressure for change isn't just coming from foreign investors and donors, but voters.
If ordinary citizens can accelerate progress in eradicating corruption, Asia's economy and markets will be much better off.
In their recent op-ed “Trump Should Rein In Taiwan” in Foreign Policy magazine, Christopher Chivvis and Stephen Wertheim argued that the US should pressure President William Lai (賴清德) to “tone it down” to de-escalate tensions in the Taiwan Strait — as if Taiwan’s words are more of a threat to peace than Beijing’s actions. It is an old argument dressed up in new concern: that Washington must rein in Taipei to avoid war. However, this narrative gets it backward. Taiwan is not the problem; China is. Calls for a so-called “grand bargain” with Beijing — where the US pressures Taiwan into concessions
The term “assassin’s mace” originates from Chinese folklore, describing a concealed weapon used by a weaker hero to defeat a stronger adversary with an unexpected strike. In more general military parlance, the concept refers to an asymmetric capability that targets a critical vulnerability of an adversary. China has found its modern equivalent of the assassin’s mace with its high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) weapons, which are nuclear warheads detonated at a high altitude, emitting intense electromagnetic radiation capable of disabling and destroying electronics. An assassin’s mace weapon possesses two essential characteristics: strategic surprise and the ability to neutralize a core dependency.
Chinese President and Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Chairman Xi Jinping (習近平) said in a politburo speech late last month that his party must protect the “bottom line” to prevent systemic threats. The tone of his address was grave, revealing deep anxieties about China’s current state of affairs. Essentially, what he worries most about is systemic threats to China’s normal development as a country. The US-China trade war has turned white hot: China’s export orders have plummeted, Chinese firms and enterprises are shutting up shop, and local debt risks are mounting daily, causing China’s economy to flag externally and hemorrhage internally. China’s
During the “426 rally” organized by the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and the Taiwan People’s Party under the slogan “fight green communism, resist dictatorship,” leaders from the two opposition parties framed it as a battle against an allegedly authoritarian administration led by President William Lai (賴清德). While criticism of the government can be a healthy expression of a vibrant, pluralistic society, and protests are quite common in Taiwan, the discourse of the 426 rally nonetheless betrayed troubling signs of collective amnesia. Specifically, the KMT, which imposed 38 years of martial law in Taiwan from 1949 to 1987, has never fully faced its