Under political pressure from the US, the EU has finally agreed to delay lifting its arms embargo on China. Given that UK Prime Minister Tony Blair, who enjoys a good relationship with Washington, is to take over the six-month presidency of the EU in the latter part of this year, we can expect that the arms ban will not be lifted during this period. The EU will not sell arms to China until at least next year.
In addition, the New York Times quoted EU officials as stating that another major factor in the decision was China's enactment of the "Anti-Secession" Law, which, they said, introduced complications.
This is good news for Taiwan, and if the special arms budget bill goes through due to compromises in the legislature, Taiwan will be able to be on a more equal footing with China for a number of years to come. If, in addition, the US continues to play a leading role in maintaining security in the Asia-Pacific region, and dissuades the EU from engaging in such activities for the short term, Taiwan need not be concerned about the Anti-Secession Law's threat for the time being.
But what about the longer-term outlook?
Clearly, US pressure on Europe will not work indefinitely. The EU doesn't want to sell arms to China merely to generate revenue from these sales. It also wants to curry favor with Beijing to secure smoother business transactions. Commercial interests can be very persuasive, and this issue cannot be decided by diplomats and national security experts alone. Elected governments face pressure from the electorate as well as interest groups.
Previously, Taiwan purchased arms from European countries whose governments could not refuse, as these deals supported weapons companies that were facing bankruptcy.
Because France sold arms to Taiwan, China did not allow it to bid for the contract to build the Guangzhou Metro. China also boycotted the adoption of Japan's Shinkansen bullet train after it gave a visa to former president Lee Teng-hui (
Money talks in the international community, and there are no long-term guarantees on security issues simply based on ties of loyalty. In the last few decades Taiwan has been quite adept at securing the advantage for itself by playing the situation, and this is in fact one of the major factors contributing to its continued development. In all honesty, Taiwan cannot demand that the EU keep its arms embargo on China.
Remember, Taiwan took advantage of European sanctions on Beijing after Tiananmen to get first dibs on the Chinese market, dropping sanctions just like Japan did. Taiwan's economy might well be in dire straits now if it weren't for that move into China at the end of the 1980s and the beginning of the 1990s.
It is wrong for Taiwan to rely on the goodwill of the US, Japan and the EU, for this goodwill is at the mercy of considerations of interest. Without strength, Taiwan has nothing to give them in exchange. Therefore, when considering whether Taiwan should stop talks with China on direct flights, or on other commercial activities, we should think about what is good for us. Naturally, direct flights would be of mutual advantage. If we sacrifice direct flights to protest the Anti-Secession Law, we should give some thought to which side will be losing the most.
Ku Er-teh is a freelance writer.
TRANSLATED BY PAUL COOPER
Concerns that the US might abandon Taiwan are often overstated. While US President Donald Trump’s handling of Ukraine raised unease in Taiwan, it is crucial to recognize that Taiwan is not Ukraine. Under Trump, the US views Ukraine largely as a European problem, whereas the Indo-Pacific region remains its primary geopolitical focus. Taipei holds immense strategic value for Washington and is unlikely to be treated as a bargaining chip in US-China relations. Trump’s vision of “making America great again” would be directly undermined by any move to abandon Taiwan. Despite the rhetoric of “America First,” the Trump administration understands the necessity of
US President Donald Trump’s challenge to domestic American economic-political priorities, and abroad to the global balance of power, are not a threat to the security of Taiwan. Trump’s success can go far to contain the real threat — the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) surge to hegemony — while offering expanded defensive opportunities for Taiwan. In a stunning affirmation of the CCP policy of “forceful reunification,” an obscene euphemism for the invasion of Taiwan and the destruction of its democracy, on March 13, 2024, the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) used Chinese social media platforms to show the first-time linkage of three new
If you had a vision of the future where China did not dominate the global car industry, you can kiss those dreams goodbye. That is because US President Donald Trump’s promised 25 percent tariff on auto imports takes an ax to the only bits of the emerging electric vehicle (EV) supply chain that are not already dominated by Beijing. The biggest losers when the levies take effect this week would be Japan and South Korea. They account for one-third of the cars imported into the US, and as much as two-thirds of those imported from outside North America. (Mexico and Canada, while
The military is conducting its annual Han Kuang exercises in phases. The minister of national defense recently said that this year’s scenarios would simulate defending the nation against possible actions the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) might take in an invasion of Taiwan, making the threat of a speculated Chinese invasion in 2027 a heated agenda item again. That year, also referred to as the “Davidson window,” is named after then-US Indo-Pacific Command Admiral Philip Davidson, who in 2021 warned that Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) had instructed the PLA to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027. Xi in 2017
RSS