Since the establishment of the People's Republic of China in 1949, its relations with Japan can be divided into two stages.
The first stage was from 1949 until 1971, before the two countries established diplomatic ties with each other. Since the Japanese authorities did not recognize the Chinese government, Beijing carried out unofficial diplomacy and had a good relationship with the Japanese private sector, while at the same time calling the Japanese government militaristic.
The second stage is the period from 1971 to the present. For China's part, accusations of Japanese militarism stopped after the establishment of diplomatic ties. But China's relationship with the Japanese private sector has gradually cooled down. Japan, meanwhile has consistently yielded to Beijing politically in order to develop economic relations. For example, Japan ignores China's crackdown on human rights and has even sacrificed its friendship with Taiwan. Japan is afraid of a rising China and is unwilling to irritate Beijing politically.
But after entering the new century, Sino-Japanese relations have changed. China is now the world's factory, and does not value Japanese capital and technology anymore. Japan also has a sense of crisis greater than any Western country and refuses to transfer technology to China. Not to mention that China has stirred up nationalism to consolidate itself. The growing political, economic and military pressure from China has triggered Japanese nationalism, especially in the younger generation. A series of incidents over the past few years have also changed their relations drastically. First, China's military development has forced Japan to review its policies. Chinese military expansion has gotten on Japan's nerves, so the latter has reduced its low interest rate loans to China. It has also amended its Constitution, which restrains its military power, while constantly adjusting its policy, and has sent troops to Iraq for peacekeeping purposes. These subtle adjustments have been made to prepare for drastic changes in the future.
China's anti-Japanese prejudice also worries the Japanese people. The aroused nationalism can hardly be eliminated. Crude messages left on Internet Web sites by angry Chinese youth also irritate Japan, which is under pressure from the Japanese people due to its concessions.
Recently, the tension between China and Japan has been shown in two respects. In addition to the sovereignty conflict over the Tiaoyutai (known in Japan as the Senkaku Islands), China's survey ships in the East China Sea have approached Japan's territory repeatedly, clearly showing that it wants to fight with Japan for access to the undersea oil fields in this area and to collect data on the sea environment for submarines. Also, take the recent Asian Cup soccer match in China for example. Chinese fans' anti-Japanese rhetoric and actions against Japan's soccer team were almost out of control. The Japanese government was unable to hide its irritation and was forced to take a harsh stance.
These cases may have the following impact: First, Japan will speed up its military reform, and promote military cooperation with Taiwan and the US. Second, Japan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs will face greater criticism for its pro-China policies, and is therefore likely to strengthen its relationship with Taiwan. Third, Japan's effort to become a permanent member of the UN Security Council will be blocked by China. Fourth, Chinese nationalism will make the world question China's ability to host the 2008 Olympic Games.
The decline of Sino-Japanese relations at present is related not only to the political situation across the Taiwan Strait, but also to the peace and stability in Asia.
Paul Lin is a political commentator based in New York.
TRANSLATED BY EDDY CHANG
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