Since the establishment of the People's Republic of China in 1949, its relations with Japan can be divided into two stages.
The first stage was from 1949 until 1971, before the two countries established diplomatic ties with each other. Since the Japanese authorities did not recognize the Chinese government, Beijing carried out unofficial diplomacy and had a good relationship with the Japanese private sector, while at the same time calling the Japanese government militaristic.
The second stage is the period from 1971 to the present. For China's part, accusations of Japanese militarism stopped after the establishment of diplomatic ties. But China's relationship with the Japanese private sector has gradually cooled down. Japan, meanwhile has consistently yielded to Beijing politically in order to develop economic relations. For example, Japan ignores China's crackdown on human rights and has even sacrificed its friendship with Taiwan. Japan is afraid of a rising China and is unwilling to irritate Beijing politically.
But after entering the new century, Sino-Japanese relations have changed. China is now the world's factory, and does not value Japanese capital and technology anymore. Japan also has a sense of crisis greater than any Western country and refuses to transfer technology to China. Not to mention that China has stirred up nationalism to consolidate itself. The growing political, economic and military pressure from China has triggered Japanese nationalism, especially in the younger generation. A series of incidents over the past few years have also changed their relations drastically. First, China's military development has forced Japan to review its policies. Chinese military expansion has gotten on Japan's nerves, so the latter has reduced its low interest rate loans to China. It has also amended its Constitution, which restrains its military power, while constantly adjusting its policy, and has sent troops to Iraq for peacekeeping purposes. These subtle adjustments have been made to prepare for drastic changes in the future.
China's anti-Japanese prejudice also worries the Japanese people. The aroused nationalism can hardly be eliminated. Crude messages left on Internet Web sites by angry Chinese youth also irritate Japan, which is under pressure from the Japanese people due to its concessions.
Recently, the tension between China and Japan has been shown in two respects. In addition to the sovereignty conflict over the Tiaoyutai (known in Japan as the Senkaku Islands), China's survey ships in the East China Sea have approached Japan's territory repeatedly, clearly showing that it wants to fight with Japan for access to the undersea oil fields in this area and to collect data on the sea environment for submarines. Also, take the recent Asian Cup soccer match in China for example. Chinese fans' anti-Japanese rhetoric and actions against Japan's soccer team were almost out of control. The Japanese government was unable to hide its irritation and was forced to take a harsh stance.
These cases may have the following impact: First, Japan will speed up its military reform, and promote military cooperation with Taiwan and the US. Second, Japan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs will face greater criticism for its pro-China policies, and is therefore likely to strengthen its relationship with Taiwan. Third, Japan's effort to become a permanent member of the UN Security Council will be blocked by China. Fourth, Chinese nationalism will make the world question China's ability to host the 2008 Olympic Games.
The decline of Sino-Japanese relations at present is related not only to the political situation across the Taiwan Strait, but also to the peace and stability in Asia.
Paul Lin is a political commentator based in New York.
TRANSLATED BY EDDY CHANG
In their recent op-ed “Trump Should Rein In Taiwan” in Foreign Policy magazine, Christopher Chivvis and Stephen Wertheim argued that the US should pressure President William Lai (賴清德) to “tone it down” to de-escalate tensions in the Taiwan Strait — as if Taiwan’s words are more of a threat to peace than Beijing’s actions. It is an old argument dressed up in new concern: that Washington must rein in Taipei to avoid war. However, this narrative gets it backward. Taiwan is not the problem; China is. Calls for a so-called “grand bargain” with Beijing — where the US pressures Taiwan into concessions
The term “assassin’s mace” originates from Chinese folklore, describing a concealed weapon used by a weaker hero to defeat a stronger adversary with an unexpected strike. In more general military parlance, the concept refers to an asymmetric capability that targets a critical vulnerability of an adversary. China has found its modern equivalent of the assassin’s mace with its high-altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) weapons, which are nuclear warheads detonated at a high altitude, emitting intense electromagnetic radiation capable of disabling and destroying electronics. An assassin’s mace weapon possesses two essential characteristics: strategic surprise and the ability to neutralize a core dependency.
Chinese President and Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Chairman Xi Jinping (習近平) said in a politburo speech late last month that his party must protect the “bottom line” to prevent systemic threats. The tone of his address was grave, revealing deep anxieties about China’s current state of affairs. Essentially, what he worries most about is systemic threats to China’s normal development as a country. The US-China trade war has turned white hot: China’s export orders have plummeted, Chinese firms and enterprises are shutting up shop, and local debt risks are mounting daily, causing China’s economy to flag externally and hemorrhage internally. China’s
During the “426 rally” organized by the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and the Taiwan People’s Party under the slogan “fight green communism, resist dictatorship,” leaders from the two opposition parties framed it as a battle against an allegedly authoritarian administration led by President William Lai (賴清德). While criticism of the government can be a healthy expression of a vibrant, pluralistic society, and protests are quite common in Taiwan, the discourse of the 426 rally nonetheless betrayed troubling signs of collective amnesia. Specifically, the KMT, which imposed 38 years of martial law in Taiwan from 1949 to 1987, has never fully faced its
RSS