In its Annual Report on the Military Power of the People's Republic of China, the US Department of Defense recommended that Taiwan set its sights on various high value targets such as the Three Gorges Dam. This would act as a deterrent to any possible military attack against Taiwan on the part of China. In my opinion the US report is not without reasons for saying this. Attack is, after all, one of the best means of defense. However, there is much room for discussion on whether construction projects such as the Three Gorges Dam or densely populated areas should be targeted.
The Three Gorges Dam is not a military facility presenting a direct threat to this nation. A strike against the dam would not be aimed at destroying a military installation from which the Chinese army could launch an attack in the hope of gaining military superiority on the battlefield. The intention would instead be to deter China from starting a war on the basis of the amount of potential damage that could be wreaked upon them. However, the effectiveness of such intimidation depends on three criteria, namely whether China perceives Taiwan to have the ability to do it, whether they believe Taiwan would actually carry it out and how much damage they estimate could be done to the dam.
If Beijing doubts Taiwan would do such a thing, the deterrence would not work. Vice Minister of Defense Tsai Ming-hsien (蔡明憲) recently said that the government had no such plans, and that given the current political situation it was impossible to reveal the military's ability to strike the dam. Given this, there is no way that Taiwan can use this as a deterrent.
In the event that China does in fact start military action, the priority would naturally be to take out the largest enemy targets and facilities, and any strike against the dam would come in due course. Unless it could be de-stroyed by underground agents embedded behind enemy lines, such an operation would merely be a diversion of manpower for what would really be very little gain.
Given the distance between Taiwan and the dam, an F-16 jet would barely make the journey relying on its own fuel capacity, and it would burn even more fuel by flying at the low altitudes needed to evade radar. Given this, the task would be an impossible mission unless the fighters were able to refuel in mid-air. However, the idea of a refueling plane waiting for Taiwanese jets to arrive in Chinese airspace is something from 101 Arabian Nights. Even if the strike were carried out using surface-to-surface missiles, anything short of a nuclear warhead would do limited damage and would only be able to destroy the rim of the dam or take out individual power stations.
Even if the jets were able to reach the dam, they would require missiles specially made for the task. Britain, in destroying the dams along the Ruhr in Germany during World War II, used heavy bombers flying at low altitudes and releasing specially made bombs 400m before the dam. When a bomb hit the water surface it would bounce, passing over the defensive netting placed under the water near the dams, and finally sink below the surface. Detonation was triggered by the hydraulic pressure, and the hole torn in the wall of the dam by the explosion was widened by the water pressure, eventually breaking up the entire dam.
The bomb that was eventually developed was codenamed "Department Store." It was 1.27m in diameter, 1.52m long and weighed up to 4.2 tonnes. How-ever, the success of the bombing mission depended on the water level in the dam. Therefore the Royal Air Force conducted detailed surveys of the targets for a period of seven weeks prior to the strike.
So why does the US wish to make such recommendations when attacking the Three Gorges Dam presents so many strategic difficulties and has very little worth in terms of a deterrence? Given the current cross-strait situation, it is clear that the US is trying to remind Taipei of the importance of deterrence and counter measures, and showing us some political means in which they can be achieved.
First, the capacity to intimidate one's opponent and provide counter measures has more demands than merely concentrating on defense, and for this reason the armed forces need to step up the overhaul of their military affairs, just as the US has repeatedly asked.
In the past the military has focused its war preparations on defense, which, in the eyes of the US, is becoming increasingly inadequate in the face of the growing threat posed by the Chinese military. This situation will necessarily increase the possibility of an attack on Taiwan by China and a corresponding rise in the cost of US intervention.
Second, even if the armed forces do have some ability to retaliate, this has never been explicitly stated in the past and it has just been tacitly understood that China knew of it. This being the case, we not only risk China initiating an attack based on a misreading of the situation, but it also makes it difficult to have an effective deterrent. This will have an effect on cross-strait relations and the morale of the people.
Taiwan should pay heed to the real meaning behind the US recommendations, and not restrict its thinking to the feasibility of an attack on the Three Gorges Dam. This will be the greatest guarantee for national security.
Bill Chang is former deputy director of the Democratic Progressive Party's Chinese Affairs Department.
TRANSLATED BY Paul Cooper
There is a modern roadway stretching from central Hargeisa, the capital of Somaliland in the Horn of Africa, to the partially recognized state’s Egal International Airport. Emblazoned on a gold plaque marking the road’s inauguration in July last year, just below the flags of Somaliland and the Republic of China (ROC), is the road’s official name: “Taiwan Avenue.” The first phase of construction of the upgraded road, with new sidewalks and a modern drainage system to reduce flooding, was 70 percent funded by Taipei, which contributed US$1.85 million. That is a relatively modest sum for the effect on international perception, and
When former president Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) first took office in 2016, she set ambitious goals for remaking the energy mix in Taiwan. At the core of this effort was a significant expansion of the percentage of renewable energy generated to keep pace with growing domestic and global demands to reduce emissions. This effort met with broad bipartisan support as all three major parties placed expanding renewable energy at the center of their energy platforms. However, over the past several years partisanship has become a major headwind in realizing a set of energy goals that all three parties profess to want. Tsai
An elderly mother and her daughter were found dead in Kaohsiung after having not been seen for several days, discovered only when a foul odor began to spread and drew neighbors’ attention. There have been many similar cases, but it is particularly troubling that some of the victims were excluded from the social welfare safety net because they did not meet eligibility criteria. According to media reports, the middle-aged daughter had sought help from the local borough warden. Although the warden did step in, many services were unavailable without out-of-pocket payments due to issues with eligibility, leaving the warden’s hands
At the end of last year, a diplomatic development with consequences reaching well beyond the regional level emerged. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared Israel’s recognition of Somaliland as a sovereign state, paving the way for political, economic and strategic cooperation with the African nation. The diplomatic breakthrough yields, above all, substantial and tangible benefits for the two countries, enhancing Somaliland’s international posture, with a state prepared to champion its bid for broader legitimacy. With Israel’s support, Somaliland might also benefit from the expertise of Israeli companies in fields such as mineral exploration and water management, as underscored by Israeli Minister of
RSS