Reflecting on the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP's) 16th National Congress, which ended on Nov. 15, of most significant is the high-level leadership reshuffle, and the inclusion of Chinese President Jiang Zemin's (
Although Jiang will still play the role of a "national supervisor" behind the scenes, the joint leadership of the fourth generation of Chinese leaders -- who succeed Mao Zedong (
The enshrining of the "Three Represents" into the party's Constitution does not necessarily mean that the party will actively promote systemic political reforms. But the new leaders have to come up with some new ideas if they wish to put Jiang's theory -- that the Communist Party represents "advanced productive forces and culture, and the vast majority of the people," -- into practice. Otherwise, they will undermine their credibility.
One can well imagine that in Taiwan's political, academic and media circles, every possible meaning and consequence will be presented and analyzed from a host of perspectives, such as that of the growth and decline of Chinese political factions and power struggles.
But Taiwan should pay particular attention to the officials who are in charge of China's Taiwan affairs -- not just the latest developments affecting Jiang and his successor, Hu Jintao (
These officials, who represent the party, government, military, "united front" work, security and diplomatic systems, as well as the Association of Relations Across the Taiwan Strait (ARATS), are the real key figures in cross-Strait relations. Their influence should never be underestimated.
We can see from the political reports given at the congress, that the key feature of Taiwan affairs has been defined. Beijing will continue its political attacks and its isolation of Taiwan, and its efforts to divide the nation and attract its wealth.
For Hu, his primary task, barring some unforeseen event, will not be cross-Strait relations. The main objective will be to follow Jiang's path. It will take some time for him to come up with his own Taiwan policy, because he has to consolidate his power and solve certain internal problems first.
From a logical point of view, there should be a relatively stable "cold peace" period across the Taiwan Strait unless the two sides deliberately provoke each other.
Whether Taipei will take the opportunity to further distance itself from China, thereby exacerbating domestic political tensions, or express goodwill to Beijing, remains entirely Taipei's prerogative.
I can't help but remember President Chen Shui-bian's (
George Tsai is a research fellow in the Institute of International Relations at National Chengchi University.
TRANSLATED BY EDDY CHANG
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