US President George W. Bush was the big winner in the US mid-term elections, gaining the legitimacy and mandate that he had never really had following the controversial result of the 2000 presidential election. Commen-tators are almost unanimous that it was Bush's push, engineered by his White House advisor Karl Rove, that was a key factor in the Republicans' stunning victory.
Bush played the war card and played it well. The tactic won and has gained Bush national support for his focus on Iraq. This, along with conflict with North Korea and the anti-terror campaign, will now dominate all other foreign policy issues.
Taiwan issues might be judged more directly now on how they impact US-China relations because the administration realizes that it must have China's acquiescence if the issues of Iraq, North Korea and anti-terrorism are to be dealt with effectively. For example, while Bush stood firm on US policy toward Taiwan and expressed concern about Chinese policies on human rights, religious persecution, Tibet and minorities at last month's summit between himself and Chinese President Jiang Zemin (
During the joint Bush-Jiang press conference at Crawford, Bush said, "The United States seeks and is building a relationship with China that is candid, constructive and cooperative. We will continue building this relationship through contacts at many levels in months to come, including a new dialogue on security issues."
Immediate signs of this shift in relations are the planned trip of US Vice President Dick Cheney to China, the announcement on Nov. 7 that a US Navy ship will visit a Chinese port this month, the US' hosting of a group of Chinese generals next month, the visit by the admiral who commands US forces in the Pacific to China in December and the resumption of senior-level defense talks not held since December 2000.
What does all this mean for Taiwan policy? The Bush administration will retain its robust commitment to Taiwan's security but, because China's cooperation is now so vital to the Bush administration, Taiwan issues will be played more quietly.
Therefore, Congress needs to step up its already very strong support for Taiwan. While 11 members of the 118 member-strong Congressional Taiwan Caucus will not return next session, the four caucus co-chairs are anxious to continue their efforts and newly elected members will surely join. Good friends of Taiwan like representatives Ben Gilman, Bob Stump and Robert Schaffer will be missed, as will senators Jesse Helms, Frank Murkowski and Robert Torricelli. However, caucus member Saxby Chambliss has moved from the House to the Senate and strong Taiwan supporter Representative Nancy Pelosi is ready to take over as House minority leader.
According to sources, four key congressional positions will be held by members who know Taiwan policy quite well: Senator Richard Lugar will chair the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Senator Chuck Hagel the Subcommittee on East Asian and Pacific Affairs, Representative Henry Hyde on the House International Relations Committee and Representative Jim Leach on the Subcommittee on East Asia and the Pacific.
Lugar knows US policy toward China and Taiwan inside and out. A speech Lugar gave in January last year shows he understands the nuances and comes down strongly on the side of a "constructive policy towards China." Lugar understands the dynamic changes that have taken place in Taiwan and believes that "it would be unthinkable for any US administration to stay aloof during a Chinese attempt to take Taiwan by military means. US credibility would suffer throughout the region and beyond."
His hope two years ago, and one presumes today, is for the US to "support Taiwan's economic and democratic way of life and explore opportunities to develop more friendly and cooperative ties with China."
Leach holds similar views. While Representative Henry Hyde is inclined to take a more skeptical view of a "constructive" relationship with China, he is the ultimate team player and will work with the administration. Hagel fits this pattern as well.
These four Congressional leaders will care about what the Chinese "red lines" are and how to make sure China does not become an obstacle to US interests.
While the State Department's view of relations with China would seem to have been strengthened by the election and the Republican takeover of the Senate, the administration's robust commitment to Taiwan's security will continue with military training and growing "interoperability" between Taiwanese and US forces.
In short, US policy toward Taiwan remains complex. The status quo, whether in cross-strait ties or US-Taiwan relations, is a dynamic, ever-shifting reality.
The Formosan Association for Public Affairs will continue to formulate strategy with our friends in Congress on how best to proceed to protect Taiwan's dignity, sovereignty and security at this crucial historical moment.
As the saying goes: "Change creates opportunities and opportunities create new worlds and new horizons." This change in the US Congress surely creates opportunities for Taiwan. It is then up to all of us to create new worlds and new horizons.
Wu Ming-chi is president of the Formosan Association for Public Affairs.
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