KMT Chairman Lien Chan (連戰) and PFP Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜) are reportedly teaming up for the next presidential election. The best opportunity for such a partnership, however, has long since passed.
In the 2000 presidential election, had they run as partners, given Soong's wide popular support and Lien's position as favorite, victory would have been assured. No other team could have seriously competed with them.
If the 2004 presidential election is again a race between President Chen Shui-bian (
So while Chen is not necessarily the only serious conten-der, Soong and Lien, individ-ually, are no longer the formidable figures they once were. This is why they must pair up if they are to pose any serious threat to Chen.
The main obstacle to a Lien-Soong ticket, however, remains the fundamental incompatibility of the two men.
Under the KMT's tradition in which power passes from one generation to another, all Lien needed to do to move up the KMT ladder was to acquit himself well in the service of the party supremo. There was little need for his personality and capability to come under close scrutiny.
Lien's presidential defeat was entirely due to a lack of popular support. This is his irreconcilable Achilles' heel.
After the KMT lost power, Lien resorted to a palace coup to succeed to the KMT chairmanship. In the two years that have followed, the party has performed worse and worse. It is no longer the party with an absolute legislative majority and now labels itself the "biggest opposition party." Judging from Lien's performance, it is no wonder that people are calling him the wastrel.
On the other hand, while Soong continues to live in the shadow of the Chung Shing Bills Finance (
Following his defeat in the presidential poll, Soong's new party, the PFP, managed to win over a large number of KMT voters, taking a significant number of legislative seats from the KMT.
The Soong camp continues to look good two years after the presidential election. No wonder Soong is considered so skillful in the art of politics.
So, if anything stands in the way of a Lien-Soong ticket, it is their fundamental incompatibility. Making a team out of the least capable, least charismatic, and least liked person on the one hand and a capable, popular, and charismatic person on the other is an extremely difficult task.
While a Lien-Soong ticket would certainly be a magnet for "pan blue" voters, it is unlikely to win over moderate voters.
This block of voters wouldn't dare let Lien run the country.
Besides, the KMT knows only too well that once a Lien-Soong ticket materializes, it would certainly be Soong calling the shots behind the scenes.
By then, PFP Vice Chairman Chang Chao-hsiung's (張昭雄) comments that "there is no `pan blue' camp, but only a pan-Soong camp" would have come true.
Unfortunately for those who favor a Lien-Soong duet in the 2004 presidential poll, the pair sing in entirely different keys.
Chin Heng-wei is editor in chief of Contemporary Monthly magazine.
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