Climate change affects the world's water cycle. But only in the early 1970s did humanity start to notice its impact on the world's water resources, ecosystem, society and economy. The world began to realize that global warming -- the greenhouse effect -- will have a deep impact on the earth's climate and ecology, and that it might become a serious environmental problem.
The first World Climate Conference was held in Geneva in February 1979. The joint announcement at the end of the conference stated that the combustion of fossil fuels, deforestation and changes in land use -- such as urbanization and improper logging -- ?are the main causes of increased atmospheric concentrations of CO2, which then lead to global warming.
Since then, international conferences on global warming have been frequently convened in places such as London (June 1989) and Bergen, Norway (May 1990). In 1988, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was set up under the UN to deal with the climate change problem, a common concern of humanity. In 1990, the IPCC advanced its first evaluation report on climate change to the 45th UN Conference, where the attending nations agreed to sign the Framework Convention on Climate Change to abate global warming.
The draft details of the convention were passed at the Earth Summit Conference in Brazil in June 1992, with the endorsement of 153 countries. The convention was put into effect in 1994 after 50 out of the 153 countries ratified the implementation. Even though most of the nations expected CO2 emissions -- ?the major greenhouse gas -- ?in 2000 could be controlled at the 1990 level, they predicted that achieving this goal would be difficult. In addition to developed and developing nations, the countries that switched from planned economic systems to liberal capital markets have also increased production and, as a result, increased CO2 emissions.
Global warming will become unavoidable if CO2 emissions continue to grow. Many countries have started to study the impact of global warming on temperature, rainfall changes and the melting of glaciers, as well as the frequency of meteorological abnormalities such as flooding and drought.
The rise in sea level, for example, is mainly caused by thermal expansion of seawater and melting of glaciers and icebergs. It was expected in 1995 that the sea level will rise by a maximum height of 50cm by 2100.
This prediction was unfortunately proven true in Tuvalu, a small island-state in the South Pacific, where most of the nation has been swallowed by seawater. Tuvalu had to send out an international emergency signal in February 2000. Shouldn't we, the people residing on Taiwan, heighten our vigilance? Domestic research reports that if the sea level rises by 50cm, 1,200km2 of Taiwan will be threatened.
Severe drought has also overshadowed Asia this year, leaving the southern part of Fujian Province and more than 1,000 reservoirs in Guangdong dead dry. Many parts of the world are also suffering from similar circumstances, including the US. There are several places in the US that are currently experiencing drought. Twenty-nine states have faced continuous water shortages, with eastern states being the hardest hit. Due to excessive evaporation, soil in some plateaus of central and southern areas have calcified.
US meteorological research institutes believe that the bizarre climatic phenomena in recent years should be closely related to the noticeable greenhouse effect. Deplorably, the US, which has recorded the largest volume of CO2 emission, chose to withdraw from the 1997 Kyoto Protocol -- an agreement to cut down on such emissions.
Various scientific measures are needed to predict and guard against the environmental catastrophes caused by global warming. But the most effective method is to reduce CO2, a greenhouse gas, by changing production methods and greedy lifestyles. This can prevent not only further global warming, but also the depletion of fossil fuels.
Before the water shortage crisis is over, the people of Taiwan should endure the hardship and comply with the current water rationing schemes. In addition, the government should collect information related to the greenhouse effect and global climate in a bid to map out disaster-prevention strategies.
Shu Yih-jen is a professor of hydraulics and ocean engineering at National Cheng Kung University.
Translated by Jackie Lin
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