Fri, May 17, 2002 page12

• 'Pan blue' camp's hopes lie in Ma

  • By Hsu Yung-ming 徐永明
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  The PFP recently expressed its support for Taipei City Mayor Ma Ying-jeou's (馬英九) re-election bid, a sign that the KMT and PFP are closing ranks.

  There has been much discussion about who might run in the 2004 presidential elections. Possible pairings include KMT Chairman Lien Chan (連戰) with PFP Chairman James Soong (宋楚瑜), Legislative Speaker Wang Jin-pyng (王金平) with Ma and even Soong with someone other than Lien. This reflects the fact that voters and politicians are good learners. From past experience, the "pan blue" camp has learned that the keys to success or failure in elections are the preservation of a simple range of possible candidate pairings and the maximization of efforts to mobilize voters with similar preferences.

  Over the past decade, splits in the KMT have led to monumental change in the political system. The triggers of those splits were mostly conflicts during election nominations. Differences of ideology further manifested themselves in the departure of the party's elite, as well as the emergence of new political parties.

  The New Party's 1993 launch, Jaw Shaw-kang's (趙少康) participation in the 1994 three-way Taipei mayoral election, Lin Yang-kang's (林洋港) and Chen Li-an's (陳履安) 1996 presidential bids as independents, Soong's 2000 presidential bid (the second three-way presidential contest) and even the current discussions over nominations for the Taipei and Kaohsiung mayoral elections are all evidence that election nominations not only decide the outcome of elections, but also influence the fate of each of Taiwan's political parties, as well as the development of Taiwan's party political system.

  By contrast, the DPP has shown itself to be very stable. Its departed chairmen are all powerless to form competitive political bases, able only to vacillate between the "blue" and "green" camps. As a stable and solid minority force, the DPP has gradually risen to assume the reins of central government power. This shows that winning a democratic election depends not only on the number of votes, but also on the ability to bring voters together and establish a consistent policy direction.

  The more stable a party's voter base, the greater its likelihood of winning an election.

  This is evident in the fact that, although the number of votes won by the DPP over the last decade has varied little, it has nonetheless experienced a steady rise in its number of legislative seats. Of course, Chen Shui-bian's (陳水扁) electoral future is closely related to this consolidated pan-green strength. He emerged victorious because he was able to position himself at the focal point of mass expectation.

  Naturally, many hope that the "pan blue" camp will unite to run integrated election campaigns. The drive toward such cohesiveness is especially strong when there is a candidate highly favored to win. He gives rise to a binding force of expectations, pushing party leaders and candidates toward cooperation.

  In this regard, Ma's moves are rather important because he is currently the focus of efforts to forge consensus within the "pan blue" camp. His bid for re-election as Taipei mayor will be a bid for reaffirmation, in which victory will brighten the "pan blue" aura around his head. The KMT and PFP leadership are feeling out the public because the pressure of public expectation is very strong. It dictates the choice of candidates, influences the rise and fall of politicians and determines who will be the leader.

  But the choice of Ma also brings two differences of opinion in terms of integration. One is at the elite level and is rarely mentioned, but is rather obvious. If Ma and his generation take over the reins, Lien and Soong will immediately face significant pressure.

  In the DPP, the problems of a new generation's takeover were resolved inconspicuously after the departure or retirement of a few party chairmen. The new generation of leaders is relatively younger and more stable. They also bring in a greater depth and breadth of governance. Problems in the integration of the "pan blue" camp manifest themselves in the form of a generational transfer of power. Lien's and Soong's dilemma can be resolved through this process.

  Another disagreement is on the more obvious public level: regional disagreements and differences over ancestral origin. That is also why the "Wang-Ma" ticket has been floated while no one has ever talked about a "Soong-Ma" ticket.

  The point is not the sentiments over ancestral origins but the ability to integrate voter bases, especially to unite the interests and identities of different ethnic groups. This has always been a common weak spot of the "pan blue" elite. This is also why Chen's camp seems well-prepared for a one-to-one race in the 2004 election, aiming to win voter sympathy through a new "middle way."

  Simply put, the "pan blue" camp's hope lies in confirming its choice of Ma. This will become more obvious if he succeeds in his re-election bid. The key to democratic politics is in forming a majority. The formation of a majority depends on effective leadership.

  It is to be hoped that stable political leadership will cause the pain of power transitions to fade away, and restore a relatively stable social and economic environment.

  Hsu Yung-ming is an assistant professor of political science at National Chung Cheng University.

  Translated by Scudder Smith and Francis Huang
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