The display of unity staged by the Chinese leadership during US President George W. Bush's visit to Beijing has given way to a new round of in-fighting over positions up for grabs at the Chinese Com-munist Party's 16th National Congress later this year. This in-fighting manifests itself in the fanning of nationalistic anti-US and anti-Taiwan sentiment in reaction to the visit to the US by Taiwan's Minister of National Defense Tang Yao-ming (湯曜明). This has triggered a competition in the field of patriotic fervor that grows more vehement by the day.
President Jiang Zemin (江澤民) was the first to act. On March 12 he gave a speech to the People's Liberation Army's delegation to the joint meeting of the National People's Congress (NPC) and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC). Jiang emphasized that the army must fully prepare to resolve the Taiwan issue.
Well-informed people in Bei-jing don't shrink from saying that this was an attempt by Jiang to appease the military. But the military has on several recent occasions made it clear that it will follow Jiang's leadership, so why would he pander to it? Obviously, he is trying to further strengthen its support for his bid to remain in the post as the chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC) after the upcoming congress. He is also trying to stop the military from swaying toward Vice President Hu Jintao (胡錦濤).
It is also being reported that Jiang has said that no one should harbor any illusions about the US when it comes to the Taiwan question. Even Hu's forthcoming visit to the US has become an issue, since Jiang has been against Hu going and stealing the spotlight from him. Because the leadership had not yet reached a consensus on the issue, China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs refused several times to answer questions about whether Hu's visit would be cancelled. Not until March 28 did ministry spokeswoman Zhang Qiyue (章啟月) announce that China and the US were making preparations for the visit.
Because of Jiang's actions, Premier Zhu Rongji (朱鎔基) could not avoid taking a position. He did not mention the use of military force against Taiwan as he delivered the government's work report to the NPC and the CPPCC.
To avoid once again being called a traitor -- as happened after his visit to the US in 1998 -- and thus endangering arrangements for Vice Premier Wen Jiabao (
As if this had not been enough, he then had to make matters worse by condemning the US in the presence of Americans. In a meeting with US Senator Daniel Inouye and others on March 26, Zhu denounced the US for "interfering in China's internal affairs" by allowing Tang to visit, something, he said, that left him "overwhelmed with indignation." In a meeting with US Representative Adam Smith the next day, Zhu again warned the US not to send the wrong message concerning Taiwan's independence.
Hu, Jiang's anointed successor and a man with a talent for interpreting the political landscape, did not want to be left behind. He sensed the direction things were taking from Jiang's speech to the army delegation and moved quickly to position himself. Since he rarely gives public speeches and since he does not want to be perceived as a leader of Chinese opposition to the US in the run-up to his visit, he wanted to pull off a coup by promoting his own man, Lieutenant General Zhu Qi (
In an article in the party publication Seeking Truth (求實), Zhu Qi said that the situation in the Taiwan Strait was becoming more complicated by the day, and that it was therefore important to pay close attention to the issue of military struggle with Taiwan and to make preparations as if war were really approaching. This consolidated the general's position in the army. It also established him as a spokesman for Hu and strengthened the relationship between Hu and the military.
But these actions also draw an ugly picture of the power struggle within the Communist Party leadership. If China wanted to protest Tang's visit to the US, it could have done so during Bush's visit to Beijing. Bush arrived in Beijing on Feb. 20, at a time when Tang's visit had already been in the works for quite some time, and when it had already been made clear that he would meet with high-ranking US officials. Tang initially did not want to go, but on Feb. 20 he announced his decision to do so.
China has repeatedly stated that the Taiwan question is the most sensitive issue in Sino-US relations. There are obviously other reasons why China did not protest directly to Bush when the latter was in Beijing, waiting instead until it was too late for the protest to be anything but an empty one.
The situation is reminiscent of that in which Taiwan's former president Lee Teng-hui (李登輝) visited the US in 1995. At first, Beijing did not state any opposition to the visit, but then they protested louder and louder. The culmination of that shouting match was large-scale military exercises and missiles fired toward Taiwan. In the end, verbal attacks and military intimidation failed and the Chinese switched to a strategy of deception.
Another round of competition is now taking shape before our eyes and, once again, calls for military exercises are being heard. Chinese army vehicles are once again moving up and down the highways of Fujian province. We can only wait and see how things will play out this time and what the results will be.
Paul Lin is a political commentator based in New York.
Translated by Perry Svensson
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