The improvement of China's position in the world is widely regarded as one of Beijing's top foreign-policy priorities. This year Beijing has accomplished some important diplomatic achievements. In July, the International Olympic Committee awarded the 2008 Olympic Games to Beijing and earlier this month China was formally granted permission to enter the WTO.
Some observers in both the US and Taiwan believe that China's active participation in international activities and organizations may alter its behavior toward other countries and result in a peaceful resolution of the cross-strait conflict. Such a view, however, is overly optimistic and ignores China's intentions and capacity to intimidate Taiwan with its military muscle.
China's intentions to turn itself into a military superpower, presumably in order to enforce its regional hegemony, has concerned its neighbors. In particular, Beijing has failed to renounce the use of force against Taiwan to bring about unification. China has repeatedly stressed that it will start a war against Taiwan if any of the so-called "three ifs" are realized -- if Taiwan declares independence, if it promotes two Chinas or if foreign countries interfere in cross-strait affairs.
China is making steady
progress in its military modernization. Many important military deployments targeted at Taiwan are underway. To upgrade its air force, China has purchased advanced Su-27SK and Su-30MKK fighters from Russia and it has already deployed more than 72 Su-27s in the Nanjing Military Region, which faces Taiwan.
By the end of this year, the first batch of 38 Su-30 MKK fighters will also be delivered to China. The main force of Su-30s will be deployed at Wuhu (
Su-27SK and Su30MKK fighters, which are equipped with AA-10 Alamo medium-to-long range (40km to 110km) radar guided air-to-air missiles, are widely regarded to be superior to the F-16 and the Mirage 2000 that Taiwan's air force deploys. The deployment of these Russian-made advanced aircraft could help China to gain air superiority over the Taiwan Strait.
Most importantly, China has deployed at least 300 short-range ballistic missiles in the vicinity of the Strait and is increasing that amount by 50 missiles per year, meaning that China could have as many as 600 missiles pointed at Taiwan by 2005 if the current buildup continues.
In addition, China has sought to beef up its air-defense capabilities in its coastal areas. New air-defense missiles, such as the Russian-made Su-300, have been installed in Fujian Province.
On Nov. 11 the Chinese Central Military Commission held a large-scale air-raid drill in Fu-zhou, the first of its kind since 1950. More than 100,000 military servicemen, armed policemen, reserve troops and students were mobilized to take part in the exercise. According to the Hong Kong-based Oriental Daily (
Given that the People's Liberation Army is pursuing the development of high-tech military equipment in an attempt to secure military superiority over the Strait, the possibility of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan cannot be ruled out, even though Beijing seeks to play a more active role on the international scene.
To deter China from exercising coercive military options against Taiwan and other neighboring countries, a carrot-and-stick policy will be needed.
The carrot side of this policy should consist of the development of productive economic cooperation and political dialogue with China. The major purpose should be to accelerate China's integration into the global economy and to keep military tensions at a relatively low level.
As for the stick, the US and its Asian allies must develop a common approach to the kind of security cooperation they will require in the coming decades. The US and Taiwan must also build a more effective framework for security cooperation to the extent that China will not seek to use coercive military force against Taiwan without being forced to take a credible US deterrent into serious account.
An absence of visible preparations for the use of force on the part of the US and its allies could be taken as a sign that Washington lacks the will or the capability and might encourage Beijing to take action to intimidate Taiwan with military force.
Tsai Ming-yen is an associate research fellow of the division of strategic and international studies at the Taiwan Research Institute.
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