Junichiro Koizumi
Koizumi, 59, divorced, has been described by LDP members as a "weirdo" with a "what I say goes" personality. He is famous for his peculiar style of behavior and likes to go along with the crowds. Though a former leader of the Yoshiro Mori
Koizumi's most well-known policy platform is a plan to privatize the postal service. While he seldom mentions diplomatic policies, Taiwan still has to pay attention to the new govern-ment's trends and possible changes in Taiwan-Japan relations.
After graduating from a British university, Koizumi served as secretary to then-premier Takeo Fukuda (福田赳夫) for three years. Then he was elected as a Lower House member. Since then, he has stayed in the pro-Taiwan Fukuda faction, precursor to the Mori faction. That faction has been traditionally friendly toward Taiwan. Mori, who insisted on issuing a visa to Taiwan's former president, Lee Teng-hui (李登輝), this month, will have considerable influence on the Koizumi administration's Taiwan policy.
During the election campaign for the LDP's presidency, Koizumi's only policy platform on national security was "to be centered around the US-Japan security alliance." Since Koizumi has no background in diplomacy, we need to consider the personnel in the new administration in order to gain a sense of its diplomatic direction.
Koizumi has emphasized breaking the status quo, so we can expect a large-scale reshuffle in the government. The top three party officials are secretary-general, policy chief and chief of the General Council. The biggest faction in the LDP, the Hashimoto (橋本) faction, which has the most interests in China, has been excluded from the three posts. Koizumi's ally, Yamasaki, will serve as secretary-general, Taro Aso (麻生太郎) is expected to become the new policy chief and Mitsuo Horiuchi (堀內光雄) will be chief of the LDP General Council.
In the three-member YKK group, Yamasaki has a deep friendship with the pro-China Kato, but the two are completely opposite in their views on diplomacy and defense. Yamasaki, who has kept a wary eye on China's military expansion, prefers closer cooperation with the US to defend Japan. He also clearly understands how important Taiwan's defense is to that of Japan. Yamasaki's position in the LDP's most influential post should therefore have positive consequences for Taiwan.
In addition, as soon as he was elected LDP president, Koizumi raised the need to revise Article 9 of the Constitution to endow Japan with the right to "collective self-defense." He also advocated worship of the Yasukuni shrine, a Shinto shrine dedicated to dead soldiers. Since these suggestions have the potential to provoke China, it is foreseeable that relations between Japan, the US, China and Taiwan could change considerably under his government. Japan's emphasis on its own security, however, also provides a chance for Taiwan to form a joint security system with Japan and the US. With Japanese civilians warmly welcoming former president Lee in an anti-China, pro-Taiwan atmosphere, now is exactly the time for Taiwan to break its diplomatic deadlock with Japan.
Lin Chien-liang is chairman of the Taiwanese Countrymen Association in Japan.
Translated by Jackie Lin
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