According to a survey conducted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies in mid-1999, security analysts consider three of the top five security challenges in the Asia-Pacific Region directly involve the People's Republic of China. This is a strong indication that China has become the largest threat to peace and stability in the area.
China's aggression in the South China Sea resulted in naval encounters with Vietnamese forces in the 1970s and 1980s. China's construction efforts on the Mischief Reef in 1998 caused tensions with the Philippines. In a different part of Asia, though the territorial dispute with India has been relatively quiet recently, China's unjustified claims of sovereignty over Taiwan perturbs the otherwise tranquil relations with the US and for that matter, Japan. Because of its location, straddling the major sea-lanes from Japan and Korea in Northeast Asia to Southeast Asia, Taiwan is of great strategic importance to free trade in the region. Japan's defense guidelines illustrates that the peace and security in the Taiwan Strait is critical to that country. Over the past decade, Taiwan has evolved into a democracy, which China claims as its renegade province.
With its economic clout, China seeks to build up its military might to defeat any potential regional contenders, such as Taiwan and Japan, and to deter any global strategic counter-weights, such as the US. Beijing seems to be developing its modern military capabilities at its own pace, however, because a more rapid and large-scale military build-up will be detrimental to its economic growth.
New developments in china
China's recent military buildup across the Taiwan Strait presents an ominous security challenge to Taiwan, nevertheless. In addition to newly deployed S-300PMU1 surface-to-air missile batteries, which can deny operations over half of the Strait, China has been increasing its inventory of short-range M-9 and M-11 ballistic missiles. According to a Pentagon report, China could amass more than 650 such missiles targeting Taiwan by the year 2005. Missiles allow China not only to compensate for its weaknesses but also to exploit deficiencies in other military forces, such as the US, Japan, and Taiwan, because these countries currently have no effective missile defense systems. Overall missile capabilities can also help China conduct information warfare because technologies used to launch reconnaissance and communications satellites are essentially the same as those used in ballistic missiles.
In order to boost its credibility in precision fighting and strategic deterrence, China has placed a high priority on the development of land-attack cruise missiles (LACM) for medium- to long-range missions. China's official aerospace publications recently indicated that the People's Liberation Army has developed two such land-attack missiles; Chang Feng and Chang Feng-JIA.
Similar to US Tomahawk LACM, the Chinese versions are expected to employ technologies such as GPS/Inertial mid-course guidance and most critically, terrain contour matching to increase its accuracy. The range of the Chang Feng missiles is believed to be 600km and accurate within 15m. The Chang Feng-JIA is capable of much greater distances at 1300km and accurate within 5m. When China fields these cruise missiles and more advanced Hong Niao land-attack cruise missiles, Taiwan's military advantage will be harder to preserve.
China's air force will soon acquire its first Israeli PHALCON airborne warning and control system (AWACS) on Russian-made A-50 aircraft. This system will greatly improve their ability to control a battle area. AWACS, coupled with China's Su-27SK and its recent acquisition of Su-30MKK and Su-27UBK advanced jet fighters will soon jeopardize Taiwan's current air superiority.
Similarly, China's deployment of advanced diesel-electric submarines such as the Russian-designed 636-series, and destroyers such as the Sovremenny-class, equipped with "Sunburn" missiles and possibly longer-range Yakhont missiles will further exacerbate the naval disparity in the Taiwan Strait. China's navy is reportedly considering buying two more Sovremenny-class destroyers from the Russian navy.
China has also acquired the co-production license of the Russian Zvezda Kh-31P missile. The missile is specifically designed to be used against US-made Patriot and Aegis systems. China is reportedly developing FT-2000/2500 missiles based on Russia's S-300PMU missiles capable of homing in on radiation emitted by E-2's. China has also acquired Russian-designed anti-AWACS missiles, dubbed KS-172/AAM-L, capable of being launched from a jet fighter. Subsequently, Taiwan's E-2Ts, future P-3s, land-based and (future) sea-based missiles will be subject to China's anti-radiation threats.
Traditionally, by securing air and naval superiority, Taiwan's military strategy has been to deter the outbreak of war. According to a recent Pentagon document, however, China is capable of neutralizing Taiwan's air superiority within 45 minutes. Whether war would be so predictable is always debatable, but there is no doubt that the Chinese have devised ways of deterring US military intervention in the Taiwan Strait. China may not be able to leapfrog the US technologically nor degrade the US forces militarily in an all-out war, but China's information warfare capacity could delay or disrupt American intervention in the Taiwan Strait.
The annual defense requisition
Since the US may not come to Taiwan's aid in time during a military confrontation between Taiwan and China -- or at all due to risks to American interests -- enhancing Taiwan's capacity to defend itself against a Chinese invasion becomes a genuine concern. In the annual US-Taiwan defense procurement negotiation, Taipei's military shopping list this year includes guided-missile destroyers equipped with the sophisticated Aegis combat system, the Patriot advanced missile defense system, P-3 Orion-series maritime patrol aircraft, long-range early warning radar, advanced medium-range air-to-air missiles (AMRAAM), thermal-imaging Maverick missiles, AGM-88, high-speed anti-radiation missiles (HARM), Javelin shoulder-launched anti-tank missiles, and Ingalls-constructed diesel-electric submarines based on German designs.
In response to growing PLA air and naval threats, the US should exercise certain flexibility and authorize the release of these weapons systems. In particular, HARMs are most effective for countering the threat posed by Sovremenny-class missile destroyers. AMRAAM's capabilities are similar or superior to Russian-made R-77 missiles. Diesel-electric submarines are needed for Taiwan's severely under-equipped and aging submarine force. P-3 maritime patrol aircraft, with greater range ASW/ASUW combat suites, can redress the inadequacy of Taiwan's S-2T ASW aircraft. Air-to-surface Maverick missiles can relieve the dire insufficiency of Taiwan's land-attack weapons inventory. As for the more controversial Aegis destroyers, since Taiwan's navy has neither carrier- nor land-based fighter-escort, its naval surface force desperately needs the destroyers for area air defense in order to neutralize incoming enemy aircraft and anti-ship missiles, especially the Sunburn missiles.
China's contentions
While the Pentagon seems more inclined to strengthen Taiwan's defense, some officials in the US State Department and National Security Council are taking a more disapproving stance for fear of agitating China. Beijing has long viewed US transferring weapons to Taiwan as a serious violation of China's national sovereignty and a major hindrance to Taiwan's unification with the "motherland." Certain weapons systems are more capable than others, but the nature of US arms sales to Taiwan, in China's opinion, has always been reckless interference and violent intrusion in China's domestic affairs by American "imperialists." Subsequently, it is no surprise that no matter what level of arms the US has sold to Taiwan in the past, China has always protested and, at least in Deng's era, threatened to downgrade diplomatic relations with the US
While the US government is wrestling with a decision over whether to sell advanced hardware to Taiwan, it is worth noting that China's military modernization has substantially upset the balance in the Strait. With economic growth as the supporting pillar to China's military modernization, Taiwan's security environment will only be further exasperated. Additionally, citing a classified 40-page Pentagon document, the Washington Post reported on March 31 that Taiwan is more vulnerable to attack from China than generally recognized because its "isolated military has fallen behind technologically." Taiwan's ability to defend itself against aircraft, ballistic missiles and cruise missiles are particularly worrisome. To remedy such deficiencies, as Taiwan's President-elect Chen Shui-Bian (
A new president and an old law
Right before Taiwan's presidential election on March 18, China unleashed a white paper that chastised Taiwan's leadership and threatened to invade Taiwan if it delays unification talks indefinitely. With Chen's inauguration on May 20, through Hong Kong media Beijing has begun to spread threats about military exercises to intimidate Taiwan. Though Chen has indicated that his administration will be "prudent, responsible, rational, pragmatic and flexible," it now looks like anything short of China's "one country, two systems" formula will not likely pacify Beijing even if the US categorically rejects all of Taiwan's defense requests and denies any support of Taiwan independence.
Regardless of his previous pro-independence image, Chen is unlikely to let Taiwan be "unified" with the dictatorial communist regime in Beijing. Nor will the new administration in Taipei have any desire to see Beijing make another Hong Kong out of Taiwan. In the foreseeable future, since China is not likely to renounce its territorial claims over Taiwan nor the use of force against the island, a showdown between Taiwan and China remains a not-too-distant possibility.
China has problems of its own. For one, the communist ideology has lost most, if not all, of its credibility in China. In order to draw attention away from its mounting domestic and economic problems, China will very likely focus on the Taiwan issue. The Chinese Communist Party has to rely on strident nationalism to legitimize its authoritarian rule. China's aggressive policy towards Taiwan, therefore, is based partly on nationalism and partly on the weakened party control over the Chinese military.
Military contingency in the Taiwan Strait poses a dilemma to the US. On one hand, the US, by engaging China, hopes to integrate the country into the world economy and to transform it into a responsible player. On the other hand, the US remains committed to peace and security in the region. A war across the Taiwan Strait will not only disrupt the flourishing economy in which the US plays a vital role, but also draw the US into a crisis.
Once a close ally of Taipei, Washington is still obligated by the Taiwan Relations Act (TRA) to help the island maintain its defenses. According to the TRA, the US is obliged to provide arms of a defensive nature to Taiwan "in such quantity as may be necessary to enable Taiwan to maintain a sufficient self-defense capability." China's recent arms build-up proves that Taiwan currently has defense needs that are not being met. The US cannot afford to forsake its defense obligations under the TRA.
Significance of US arms sales
From a different perspective, facing a persistent menace from China, Taiwan's military may likely adopt a more offensive posture against China. In a speech late last year, Taiwan's current Vice President Lien Chan (
Some US security experts have expressed their concern over whether Taiwan has a sufficient number of qualified personnel to operate the highly sophisticated Aegis guided-missile destroyers. The answer, unfortunately, may well be "no." Taiwan's military has operated virtually in isolation for the past 20 years and has no direct and secure means of communicating with US forces on a routine basis. These, among other factors, contribute to deficiencies in deterring Chinese military aggression against Taiwan.
The Taiwan Security Enhancement Act (TSEA) calls for increased US training and education for Taiwanese military officers to "work in threat analysis, doctrine, force planning, operational methods, and other areas." With such provisions, Taiwan's armed forces might realize that greater resources must be placed in air and naval forces. More importantly, closer defense relations between the US and Taiwan, as mandated by the TSEA, would prove to be pivotal if military confrontation becomes inevitable in the Taiwan Strait.
Weapons necessary
Continued US arms sales to Taiwan will not only enhance Taiwan's military capabilities but also demonstrate US political support for its democratization. Both factors improve Taiwan's sense of security and would boost its confidence in engaging in political dialogue with China. For a variety of reasons, some US security experts have advocated denying Taipei new weapons systems this year. Such a deplorable decision would not only be demoralizing to the people of Taiwan, but also invite miscalculation on Beijing's part. To punish Taiwan by voicing disapproval of its new administration is far from exemplary to flourishing democratic movements throughout the world. In short, if the US is not firm in its founding values, its potential "partners," such as China, may become more audacious in pursuing their own objectives. In this regard, Washington should not deviate from its commitment to Taiwan's security.
Holmes S. Liao (廖宏祥), PhD is a research fellow in the Division of Strategic and International Studies of the Taiwan Research Institute.
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