Switzerland’s economy rebounded at the end of last year, partially shaking off the impact of outsized tariffs inflicted by US President Donald Trump.
GDP adjusted for large sports events rose 0.2 percent in the fourth quarter from the previous three months, when it dropped by 0.5 percent. The result is just below the 0.3 percent median prediction of economists in a Bloomberg survey.
“Growth in the services sector was muted, while the industrial sector stagnated,” the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs said in a statement on yesterday.
Photo: EPA
The reading suggests resilience in the Swiss economy after the initial shock of Trump’s 39 percent tariff in August last year drove its biggest contraction since the COVID-19 pandemic.
A deal cutting levies to 15 percent as of mid-November last year, with the Alpine nation vowing to invest US$200 billion in the US, had raised hopes that the trade levies’ impact would be limited.
The government subsequently raised its growth forecasts for this year almost back to levels seen before the surcharges took effect, albeit cautioning that uncertainty remains high.
For last year as a whole, GDP growth reached 1.4 percent, matching the government’s prediction and up from 1.2 percent the previous year.
Companies in the export-focused economy are grappling with a strong franc, which climbed to fresh decade highs against the euro and the US dollar in recent weeks. The currency’s strength could force the Swiss National Bank to consider reintroducing negative interest rates after already lowering its benchmark to zero.
While the third quarter of last year marked only the second Swiss contraction since the pandemic — underscoring a more robust economy than many European peers — early signs indicate potentially rough times ahead.
Layoffs are mounting, particularly in the important pharmaceutical sector, which had dragged on growth and is under particular pressure from the White House’s push to cut drug prices in the US.
A number of small and medium-sized enterprises — which employ two-thirds of the Swiss workforce — have also announced job reductions or plans to move production abroad.
Unemployment has been edging up since 2023, although last month saw a slight decrease in the seasonally adjusted figure.
The GDP report excludes data from large sport events, because they can distort the overall picture of the country’s economy.
Switzerland is the home to several global sports bodies, so when for instance the Olympic Games take place — earning revenue for the International Olympic Committee — that boosts the output statistic without benefiting economic activity.
A final growth reading along with further details on its drivers are to be published on Feb. 27.
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