The economy is poised for stronger-than-expected expansion this year as the global artificial intelligence (AI) boom pours fresh momentum into the world’s most advanced chipmaking hub, Standard Chartered PLC said yesterday.
The bank has raised its forecast for Taiwan’s GDP growth this year to 3.8 percent, up from a prior estimate of 2.5 percent, citing strong demand for AI-related semiconductors and sustained capital spending by the nation’s technology champions.
Standard Chartered’s growth projection for next year was also nudged higher to 2.7 percent.
Photo: Ritchie B. Tongo, EPA
Taiwan is benefiting disproportionately from a worldwide wave of AI investment, which has lifted semiconductor exports and fueled a new round of capacity expansion, the bank’s global research unit said in a report.
The outlook was reinforced by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC, 台積電), which told an earnings conference in Taipei yesterday that it plans to boost capital spending to between US$52 billion and US$56 billion this year. The increase underscores the chipmaker’s commitment to accelerating mass production and capacity expansion at the 2-nanometer node, a key battleground in the race for technological leadership.
TSMC chairman C.C. Wei (魏哲家) said demand from US cloud service providers has proven to be genuine rather than speculative. The company’s customer roster also includes Nvidia Corp, Apple Inc and Broadcom Inc.
The US became Taiwan’s largest export market last year, accounting for 30.9 percent of the nation’s total outbound shipments, driven largely by demand for chips, servers and other data center equipment used in AI development, Ministry of Finance data showed.
About two-thirds of Taiwan’s exports are exempt from reciprocal US tariffs, helping shield the economy from the immediate impact of Washington’s trade measures.
Globally, Standard Chartered expects economic growth to hold steady at 3.4 percent this year, unchanged from last year.
The World Bank on Tuesday forecast that the global economy would grow 2.6 percent this year, slower than an estimated 2.7 percent for last year.
Standard Chartered warned that rising uncertainty about trade policy, geopolitical tensions and potential financial market adjustments pose elevated risks across major economies.
As global central banks approach the end of their rate-cutting cycles, policy support is expected to shift toward fiscal spending and investment-led growth, with consumer demand remaining a key stabilizing force, the bank said.
Standard Chartered raised its growth forecast for the US to 2.3 percent this year, from 1.7 percent, citing the combined impact of corporate tax cuts, intensifying competition to adopt AI technologies and an expected recovery in its labor market in the second half of the year.
However, the bank flagged potential volatility tied to the US midterm elections, US Federal Reserve leadership changes and rising political pressure on monetary policy.
China is expected to post GDP growth of 4.6 percent this year, up from an earlier estimate of 4.3 percent, on the back of Beijing’s fiscal and monetary policies, Standard Chartered said.
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