The Ministry of Economic Affairs yesterday revised down the nation’s power consumption growth forecast to 1.7 percent over the next decade, as major investments from semiconductor firms and into artificial intelligence (AI) technologies were diverted mainly overseas.
That compares with a forecast compound annual growth rate of 2.8 percent during a 10-year period from last year to 2033.
The revision is also due to a lower base this year, as power consumption declined in the first half of this year as a business slump in the traditional sector cut electricity usage, Energy Administration Acting Director-General Lee Chun-li (李君禮) told a news conference.
Photo courtesy of Taiwan Power Co
The government’s energy conservation initiatives also helped, the official said.
The measure is expected to save 20.6 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity over four years, or about 5TWh annually, Lee said.
The revised power consumption growth forecast is comparable to rival countries’ projected growth — 0.6 percent in Japan and 1.8 percent in South Korea, Lee said.
Although Taiwan’s GDP expanded 6.75 percent in the first half of this year, power consumption dropped 1.1 percent from a year earlier, the ministry said.
The growth of 7 to 8 percent in power consumption of heavy users such as semiconductor firms was offset by declines of 2 to 10 percent in heavy industries such as steel, cement, papermaking and petrochemicals, resulting in a decline during the period, he said.
The Energy Administration expects peak load demand to expand to about 42.2GW at night in 2030 from 36.88GW this year.
State-run Taiwan Power Co (Taipower, 台電) would focus on diversifying green energy sources to help ensure stable and sufficient electricity supply, Lee said.
The company is expanding solar energy and wind power supply, accelerating the development of geothermal and small hydropower projects to maximize the use of renewable energy, he said.
The ministry reiterated that renewable energy is to account for 20 percent of total power supply in November next year, after the government pushed back the goal three times.
By the end of 2030, green energy is projected to make up about 30 percent of total power supply, up from last year’s estimate of 25 percent, as the government plans to expand geothermal, biomass, small hydropower and marine energy capacities, the report said.
Taipower projected its reserve margin would improve to 19.6 percent after 2030 from 14.2 percent this year. That figure is expected to climb to 27.7 percent in 2033, indicating that its electricity capacity would outgrow demand, or capacity adequacy, it said.
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