Consumer confidence edged up this month, with households expressing more optimism about the economy and equity markets, even as concerns about inflation and a potential slowdown in the second half linger, a Cathay Financial Holding Co (國泰金控) survey showed yesterday.
The index gauging sentiment on Taiwan’s economic outlook rose to minus-28.1 this month from minus-30.9 the previous month, indicating that while pessimists still outnumber optimists, the gap is narrowing, the company said.
On average, respondents projected economic growth of 2.58 percent for this year, with 64 percent expecting the figure to fall short of 3 percent — reflecting a cautious mood, despite healthy data, it said.
Photo: CNA
The Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DGBAS) in May forecast GDP growth of 3.1 percent. It is expected to revise the figure upward next month, following stronger-than-expected exports in the second quarter.
Inflation remains a key concern. While the DGBAS expects consumer prices to rise only 1.88 percent this year, respondents on average expect inflation to reach 2.26 percent, with 62 percent anticipating it would exceed beyond the central bank’s 2 percent alert level.
Investor confidence also showed signs of improvement. The index measuring sentiment toward stock market investment over the next six months climbed to 4.9 from 3.4 last month, with 31 percent of respondents saying that they expect the TAIEX to trade between 23,000 and 24,000 points, while 22 percent anticipate it would fall below 23,000 points.
The TAIEX closed at 23,340.56 yesterday, down 0.18 percent, amid lingering uncertainty over US tariffs.
Still, 14 percent expect the index could breach the 26,000 mark, and overall, 47 percent expect the market to rise above 24,000, the survey showed.
That outlook helped lift the risk appetite index to 5.5, as more respondents said they plan to increase their equity holdings, Cathay Financial said.
The more positive tone also extended to consumer spending. The index measuring willingness to make big-ticket purchases turned positive for the first time in months, rising to 2, the company said.
However, broader consumption indicators remained subdued. Sentiment toward durable goods was unchanged at minus-19.6, while the housing market continued to face headwinds, it said.
The home-buying sentiment index fell to minus-47.6, while the willingness-to-sell index dropped to minus-29.4, reflecting ongoing caution in the property market, amid the central bank’s credit controls.
UNCERTAINTIES: Exports surged 34.1% and private investment grew 7.03% to outpace expectations in the first half, although US tariffs could stall momentum The Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research (CIER, 中華經濟研究院) yesterday raised its GDP growth forecast to 3.05 percent this year on a robust first-half performance, but warned that US tariff threats and external uncertainty could stall momentum in the second half of the year. “The first half proved exceptionally strong, allowing room for optimism,” CIER president Lien Hsien-ming (連賢明) said. “But the growth momentum may slow moving forward due to US tariffs.” The tariff threat poses definite downside risks, although the scale of the impact remains unclear given the unpredictability of US President Donald Trump’s policies, Lien said. Despite the headwinds, Taiwan is likely
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