China’s economy hit the government’s growth goal last year after an 11th-hour stimulus blitz and export boom turbocharged activity, although looming US tariffs threaten to take away a key driver of expansion.
GDP rose 5 percent in the world’s second-largest economy, data released by the Chinese National Bureau of Statistics yesterday showed, slightly exceeding the median estimate of 4.9 percent in a Bloomberg survey.
“The biggest bright spot in the economy last year was exports, which was very strong, especially if price factor was excluded,” BNP Paribas SA chief China economist Jacqueline Rong (榮靜) said. “That means the biggest problem this year will be US tariffs.”
Photo: EPA-EFE
China has vowed further monetary easing and stronger public spending this year, as its economy braces for US president-elect Donald Trump’s return to the White House.
Trump has threatened tariffs of as high as 60 percent on Chinese goods, which could decimate trade with the Asian country.
Those very threats encouraged global businesses to frontload shipments and bolstered growth last year. However, that boost might fade in the coming months, as potential levies, including from the EU and other trade partners, make Chinese exports less competitive.
The yuan strengthened 0.1 percent against the US dollar in onshore and offshore markets after the data release. The benchmark CSI 300 index of Chinese stocks erased an earlier loss of 0.5 percent to rise 0.5 percent.
“The government has repeatedly alluded to significant support. We see this forthcoming, as Friday’s data hammer home the pressing need. The imperative could become even greater in the case of higher tariffs hitting exports significantly,” Bloomberg economists Chang Shu and David Qu (曲天石) said.
While China’s nearly flawless record in reaching its headline growth target is frequently doubted, the broad set of data also suggests Beijing’s policy pivot since late September last year helped counter headwinds from a years-long property slump and entrenched deflation.
Industrial production beat estimates to rise 6.2 percent last month compared with the previous year, the fastest pace since April last year.
The picture for domestic demand is more mixed. While unemployment climbed for the first time since August last year and property sales continued to contract, consumption showed signs of an uptick in categories helped by the stimulus push.
Retail sales rose 3.8 percent in the last quarter, accelerating to the fastest pace last year after the government ramped up a program to subsidize purchases of appliances, cars and business equipment. That brought home goods sales growth to 12.3 percent, the highest since 2013.
“Front-loaded export orders certainly helped, but the improvement was not just seen in exports, but also in consumption, which was largely a result of purchase subsidies,” Macquarie Group Ltd China economics head Larry Hu (胡偉俊) said.
Economists led by Robin Xing (邢自强) at Morgan Stanley estimate that about 60 percent of the rebound in annual growth was caused by China’s policy to boost consumption and manufacturing investment, while the rest came from advanced shipments.
The Eurovision Song Contest has seen a surge in punter interest at the bookmakers, becoming a major betting event, experts said ahead of last night’s giant glamfest in Basel. “Eurovision has quietly become one of the biggest betting events of the year,” said Tomi Huttunen, senior manager of the Online Computer Finland (OCS) betting and casino platform. Betting sites have long been used to gauge which way voters might be leaning ahead of the world’s biggest televised live music event. However, bookmakers highlight a huge increase in engagement in recent years — and this year in particular. “We’ve already passed 2023’s total activity and
Nvidia Corp CEO Jensen Huang (黃仁勳) today announced that his company has selected "Beitou Shilin" in Taipei for its new Taiwan office, called Nvidia Constellation, putting an end to months of speculation. Industry sources have said that the tech giant has been eyeing the Beitou Shilin Science Park as the site of its new overseas headquarters, and speculated that the new headquarters would be built on two plots of land designated as "T17" and "T18," which span 3.89 hectares in the park. "I think it's time for us to reveal one of the largest products we've ever built," Huang said near the
China yesterday announced anti-dumping duties as high as 74.9 percent on imports of polyoxymethylene (POM) copolymers, a type of engineering plastic, from Taiwan, the US, the EU and Japan. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce’s findings conclude a probe launched in May last year, shortly after the US sharply increased tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, computer chips and other imports. POM copolymers can partially replace metals such as copper and zinc, and have various applications, including in auto parts, electronics and medical equipment, the Chinese ministry has said. In January, it said initial investigations had determined that dumping was taking place, and implemented preliminary
Intel Corp yesterday reinforced its determination to strengthen its partnerships with Taiwan’s ecosystem partners including original-electronic-manufacturing (OEM) companies such as Hon Hai Precision Industry Co (鴻海精密) and chipmaker United Microelectronics Corp (UMC, 聯電). “Tonight marks a new beginning. We renew our new partnership with Taiwan ecosystem,” Intel new chief executive officer Tan Lip-bu (陳立武) said at a dinner with representatives from the company’s local partners, celebrating the 40th anniversary of the US chip giant’s presence in Taiwan. Tan took the reins at Intel six weeks ago aiming to reform the chipmaker and revive its past glory. This is the first time Tan
RSS