Taiwan’s trade surplus with the US surged to a record high last year, a haul that could rankle US President-elect Donald Trump as he returns to the White House on a mission to eliminate the US’ imbalances in commerce.
Net Taiwanese exports to the US jumped by 83.5 percent to US$64.9 billion last year, according to a statement from the Finance Ministry today — the sixth straight year that the net figure has climbed.
In contrast, Taiwan’s net exports to China fell to US$17.7 billion last year, the lowest level since 2003. The divergence in trade flows highlights Taiwan’s decreasing economic reliance on its largest neighbor amid high geopolitical tensions across the strait and a slowdown in China’s economy.
Photo: Taipei Times file photo
The widening trade imbalance with the US could make Taiwan a target of tariffs proposed by Trump as he prepares to reclaim the White House later this month. The former president has pledged to usher in a manufacturing boom and repeatedly criticized US trade deficits with other countries. In a July interview with Bloomberg Businessweek before the US election last year, Trump accused Taiwan of taking “about 100 percent of our chip business.”
Premier Cho Jung-tai (卓榮泰), in a meeting with a delegation from the US-Taiwan Business Council, emphasized the government’s commitment to expanding cooperation in trade, investment and procurement with the US, according to a statement from the Cabinet on Tuesday.
The central bank has suggested increasing purchases of US energy, agricultural goods and military equipment — a move that could align Taiwan with Trump’s demands. Central bank Governor Yang Chin-long (楊金龍) said in November last year that TSMC’s investments in the US might help alleviate Taiwan's trade imbalance with the world’s largest economy, and other Taiwanese companies could consider following suit.
Exports have remained a key driver of Taiwan’s economy. The central bank recently lifted its growth forecast for last year to 4.25 percent during its latest quarterly meeting, citing robust overseas demand for Taiwan’s technology products.
The New Taiwan dollar is on the verge of overtaking the yuan as Asia’s best carry-trade target given its lower risk of interest-rate and currency volatility. A strategy of borrowing the New Taiwan dollar to invest in higher-yielding alternatives has generated the second-highest return over the past month among Asian currencies behind the yuan, based on the Sharpe ratio that measures risk-adjusted relative returns. The New Taiwan dollar may soon replace its Chinese peer as the region’s favored carry trade tool, analysts say, citing Beijing’s efforts to support the yuan that can create wild swings in borrowing costs. In contrast,
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