Taiwan’s semiconductor industry could maintain its global lead for at least the next eight to 10 years, an analyst said on Tuesday, while an executive urged the government to ensure research security and to develop a “grand strategy” with changing supply chains in mind.
At a forum called “Taiwan in the Era of Techno-Geopolitics” in Taipei hosted by the think tank Research Institute for Democracy, Society and Emerging Technology (DSET), analyst Ray Yang (楊瑞臨) said he believes the nation’s semiconductor industry would maintain its competitive edge for another eight to 10 years.
However, while Taiwan’s lead in the commercial sectors of the industry — including manufacturing, design, packaging and testing — is unquestionable, it needs to establish strategies to ensure access to next-generation semiconductor technology, he added.
Photo: CNA
“Next year the industry will utilize 2-nanometer process technology, and I believe Taiwan will continue to dominate until at least the 9-angstrom generation,” said Yang, who works as consulting director at the Industry, Science and Technology International Strategy Center which is part of the Industrial Technology Research Institute.
One angstrom is one-10 of one nanometer, therefore the arrival of the 9-angstrom generation would mean even more advanced and precise technology is being used to produce chips.
However, so-called “next-generation semiconductors” are still coming, Yang said, referring to how semiconductor production would involve using new materials or ways of advancing efficiency when the limit of the existing technology is reached.
China has been trying to “overtake on a curve” by working on next-generation technology, the analyst said, adding that the US and Europe are also working toward the possible breakthrough.
“Taiwan has to work with other countries in conducting such research, but in the process of international collaboration, we will also have to protect our own research security,” he said.
SEMI global chief marketing officer and Taiwan president Terry Tsao (曹世綸) called on the government to formulate a “grand strategy” to ensure the future of Taiwan’s semiconductor industry.
Prior to the geopolitical landscape shift arising from the US-China trade conflict, companies could easily find their position in the industry without government assistance because there was a global division of labor, Tsao said.
“But now the supply chain reshuffle and geopolitical impact have made it necessary for the industry to work with the government,” he said.
Tsao also said that “narrative” is important for the global community.
“Our [semiconductor] industry was able to single-mindedly concentrate on excelling in manufacturing, but now, risks for the industry would arise if an international narrative in the direction of doubting relying on Taiwan too much develops,” he said.
Tsao said he believes the government and government-led think tanks should focus on formulating Taiwan’s own discourse.
“It should be highlighted that Taiwan can build a resilient partnership with other like-minded countries based on mutual trust,” he said.
“After all, it is not necessarily a good idea for the industry to replicate large-scale manufacturing,” Tsao said. “Companies may get lots of subsidies and suppliers may see a boost, but it could all result in ineffective overcapacity.”
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