China’s exports rose last month, the first increase since April, while imports fell, customs data released yesterday showed.
Exports rose 0.5 percent from a year earlier to US$291.9 billion, a sign that demand might be picking up after months of decline.
However, imports fell 0.6 percent to US$223.5 billion after they climbed 3 percent in October.
Photo: AFP
China has been grappling with sluggish foreign trade this year amid slack global demand and a stalled recovery, despite the country’s reopening after its COVID-19 controls were lifted late last year.
The trade surplus of US$68.4 billion was up 21 percent compared with October’s US$56.5 billion.
Some economists said they doubt the rise, fueled mainly by exports of vehicles and ships, would continue for long.
“Looking forward, the resilience of exports is unlikely to last. The recent strength is at least partly fueled by exporters slashing prices to gain market share,” Capital Economics economist Huang Zichun (黃子春) said in a note, describing the reduction of prices as “unsustainable.”
“Without the support of price cuts, exports are unlikely to defy the slowdown in growth among China’s major trading partners, which we expect to continue in the first half of next year,” Huang said.
Trade with Japan, Southeast Asian countries, the EU and the US has declined this year.
Exports to the US and the EU have fallen by more than 10 percent so far this year from the same period last year, while those to Russia surged 50 percent, the official data showed.
Imports of steel plunged 27 percent so far this year as the property downturn deepened, while chips declined by 16.5 percent.
Demand for Chinese exports has been weak since the US Federal Reserve, and central banks in Europe and Asia began raising interest rates last year to cool inflation that was at multi-decade highs.
“It is unclear if exports can contribute as a growth pillar into next year,” Pinpoint Asset Management Ltd (保銀私募基金管理) chief economist Zhang Zhiwei (張智威) said. “The European and US economies are cooling. China still needs to depend on the domestic demand as the main driver for growth in 2024.”
Additional reporting by Bloomberg
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