The government’s business climate monitor last month remained “blue” for the eighth straight month as major economic barometers displayed negative cyclical movements, in line with a recessionary state, the National Development Council (NDC) said yesterday.
The total value of the nine monitoring indicators gained 1 point to 13, thanks to rallies in the local bourse as local tech stocks benefited from their participation in the supply of artificial intelligence (AI) devices, the council said.
“The stock closing prices flashed the first ‘green’ light in 15 months, suggesting the business landscape would grow brighter,” the council said.
Photo: CNA
The council uses a five-color system to portray the nation’s economic health, with “green” signifying steady growth, “red” suggesting a boom and “blue” reflecting a recession. Dual colors suggest transition to a stronger or weaker state. Stock prices are widely believed to lead real business performance by several months.
The remaining eight constituent measures stayed unchanged from one month earlier, the council said, adding that the business climate monitor could emerge from “blue” territory later this year.
The index of leading indicators, which seeks to project the economic situation in the next six months, shed another 0.63 percent from one month earlier to 98.56, the council said.
The readings on labor accession and business confidence showed positive cyclical movements, in addition to stock prices, it said.
The partial uptick came even though declines in imports of semiconductor equipment, export orders and building floor areas widened, the council said.
The index of coincident indicators, which reflects the current economic situation, increased 0.04 percent to 93.61, an encouraging sign, it said.
The values on non-farm payroll and electricity usage increased, but industrial output, imports of electrical and machinery equipment, exports and manufacturing sales continued to decline, it said.
The council stood by the view that the nation’s GDP growth this year would exceed 2 percent as the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics projected in May. The statistics agency is to release data on the second quarter tomorrow.
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