Taiwan’s current business cycle, which peaked in January last year, is expected to bottom out in the second quarter, the National Development Council (NDC) said on Monday.
NDC Deputy Minister Kao Shien-quey (高仙桂) said that trends in the council’s composite index of leading indicators, the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research’s purchasing managers’ index and the Taiwan Institute of Economic Research’s composite index of manufacturing indicators showed signs that the domestic economy might hit bottom next quarter.
A traditional business cycle undergoes four stages: expansion, peak, contraction and trough, with expansion averaging 40 months and contraction lasting about 15 months in Taiwan, the council said, citing historical patterns.
Photo courtesy of the Executive Yuan
Taiwan is in its 15th business cycle, which included a 71-month expansion phase from March 2016 to January last year, when the economy benefited from a global supply chain shift to Taiwan, the return of Taiwanese businesses from overseas and robust demand for high-tech gadgets amid a booming stay-at-home economy, it said.
Its statistics showed that the expansion period was much longer than Taiwan’s historical average of 40 months.
It was the second-longest on record behind a 96-month period that began in September 1956.
However, after peaking in January last year, the cycle entered a period of decline, the council said.
With contractions in the business cycle averaging 15 months in the past, next month should be the trough, Kao said.
It remains to be seen whether the cycle would bottom out in the second quarter, as there are still many variables involved, such as the monetary policies of major central banks, the pace of economic recovery in China, geopolitical developments including the Russia-Ukraine war, and continued tension between the US and China, Kao said.
Additional reporting by Chen Cheng-hui
STEADY: Prices are to rebound following inventory rebuilding demand, TrendForce said, with Samsung Electronics Co further trimming capacity as it slashes DDR4 lines The contract prices of DRAM chips are to rise by as much as 18 percent sequentially this quarter — the first price upticks in about eight quarters — driven mainly by inventory rebuilding demand for DRAM chips used in mobile devices and PCs, TrendForce Corp (集邦科技) projected yesterday. The price rebound is led by a quarterly increase of mobile DRAM chips, which are to climb between 13 percent and 18 percent quarter-on-quarter this quarter, which has not been seen since the fourth quarter of 2021, the Taipei-based market researcher predicted. Likewise, the price of mainstream PC DDR4 DRAM is expected to bounce
SOLID FOUNDATION: Given its decades of expertise in megatronics, manufacturing and robotics, Japan has the wherewithal to create its own AI, Jensen Huang said Nvidia Corp plans to help build an artificial intelligence (AI) tech-related ecosystem in Japan to meet demand in a country eager to gain an edge in this emerging technology. The US company will seek to partner with Japanese research organizations, companies and start-ups to build factories for AI, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang (黃仁勳) said yesterday during opening remarks in a meeting with Japanese Minister of Economy, Trade and Industry Yasutoshi Nishimura. The company is to set up an AI research laboratory, and invest in local start-ups and educate the public on using AI, Huang said. Huang earlier this week met with Japanese Prime
A Hong Kong court postponed a court hearing on troubled Chinese property developer Evergrande Group’s (恆大集團) winding-up petition scheduled for yesterday until Jan. 29. Evergrande is trying to win support from its creditors for a plan to restructure more than US$300 billion in debt to stave off liquidation. The company’s lawyer told the court it was requesting an adjournment to “refine” its new debt restructuring plan. The Hong Kong High Court has postponed the hearing over Evergrande’s potential liquidation several times. Judge Linda Chan (陳靜芬) had said in October that yesterday’s hearing would be the last before a decision is handed down. Chan
Huawei Technologies Co (華為) is among a field of “very formidable” competitors to Nvidia Corp in the race to produce the best artificial intelligence (AI) chips, Nvidia chief executive officer Jensen Huang (黃仁勳) said yesterday. Huawei, Intel Corp and an expanding group of semiconductor start-ups pose a stiff challenge to Nvidia’s dominant position in the market for AI accelerators, Huang told reporters in Singapore. Shenzhen-based Huawei has grown into China’s chip tech champion and returned to the spotlight this year with an advanced made-in-China smartphone processor. “We have a lot of competitors, in China and outside China,” Huang said. “Most of our competitors