Cathay Financial Holding Co (國泰金控) yesterday downgraded its GDP growth forecast for Taiwan for this year to 3.0 percent, from its previous estimate of 3.2 percent, and lowered its forecast to 2.3 percent for next year, down from 2.7 percent, citing slowing export and investment growth.
Other factors that could also weigh on the nation’s growth outlook include Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China’s COVID-19 situation and inflation in the US and Europe, Cathay Financial Holding said.
Since the global economy is expected to slow next year, demand for manufactured goods from Taiwan might weaken, which would add to the pressure on electronics manufacturers facing inventory congestion and dampen exports momentum, said National Central University economics professor Hsu Chih-chiang (徐之強), who heads a research team commissioned by Cathay Financial Holding.
Photo: CNA
As companies become more conservative about exports and economic growth, they might refrain from expanding or making large-scale investments next year to avoid affecting the scale of private investment, Hsu said.
On a positive note, private consumption might contribute to the economy next year due to increased purchasing and relaxed border controls, he said.
In addition, growth momentum in the second half of next year might be stronger than in the first half, as firms are likely to have depleted their inventories by then, Hsu said.
Cathay Financial Holding’s 2.3 percent GDP growth forecast is lower than the 2.53 percent estimate by the central bank and the 2.75 percent that the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics predicted.
Inflation in Taiwan is expected to peak at about 2.0 percent at the end of first quarter next year and the central bank could stop its rate hikes in the first half of the year, Hsu said.
There is a slim chance that the central bank would lower its policy rates next year, he said.
The policy rates are still at a comparatively low level given the central bank’s mild pace of hikes this year, he added.
Intel Corp chief executive officer Lip-Bu Tan (陳立武) is expected to meet with Taiwanese suppliers next month in conjunction with the opening of the Computex Taipei trade show, supply chain sources said on Monday. The visit, the first for Tan to Taiwan since assuming his new post last month, would be aimed at enhancing Intel’s ties with suppliers in Taiwan as he attempts to help turn around the struggling US chipmaker, the sources said. Tan is to hold a banquet to celebrate Intel’s 40-year presence in Taiwan before Computex opens on May 20 and invite dozens of Taiwanese suppliers to exchange views
Application-specific integrated circuit designer Faraday Technology Corp (智原) yesterday said that although revenue this quarter would decline 30 percent from last quarter, it retained its full-year forecast of revenue growth of 100 percent. The company attributed the quarterly drop to a slowdown in customers’ production of chips using Faraday’s advanced packaging technology. The company is still confident about its revenue growth this year, given its strong “design-win” — or the projects it won to help customers design their chips, Faraday president Steve Wang (王國雍) told an online earnings conference. “The design-win this year is better than we expected. We believe we will win
Chizuko Kimura has become the first female sushi chef in the world to win a Michelin star, fulfilling a promise she made to her dying husband to continue his legacy. The 54-year-old Japanese chef regained the Michelin star her late husband, Shunei Kimura, won three years ago for their Sushi Shunei restaurant in Paris. For Shunei Kimura, the star was a dream come true. However, the joy was short-lived. He died from cancer just three months later in June 2022. He was 65. The following year, the restaurant in the heart of Montmartre lost its star rating. Chizuko Kimura insisted that the new star is still down
While China’s leaders use their economic and political might to fight US President Donald Trump’s trade war “to the end,” its army of social media soldiers are embarking on a more humorous campaign online. Trump’s tariff blitz has seen Washington and Beijing impose eye-watering duties on imports from the other, fanning a standoff between the economic superpowers that has sparked global recession fears and sent markets into a tailspin. Trump says his policy is a response to years of being “ripped off” by other countries and aims to bring manufacturing to the US, forcing companies to employ US workers. However, China’s online warriors
RSS