Wed, Oct 26, 2022 page10

• Green economy brings dependence on key minerals

  SUPPLY ISSUE: Global demand for critical metals, such as cobalt and lithium, could quadruple by 2040, and only a few countries have control over them, especially China

  • AFP, PARIS
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  After nearly a century of geopolitical tension over access to oil, experts worry that the global transition to clean energy is creating new dependencies on the critical minerals needed for solar panels, wind turbines and electric vehicle batteries.

  Control over most of these essential elements is concentrated in a handful of countries, none more than China, they say.

  Cobalt, nickel, manganese and lithium are critical to making electric vehicle batteries. Rare earths such as neodymium, praseodymium and dysprosium are used in computer memory and magnets in wind turbines. Copper and aluminum are used in electricity networks, and platinum is a catalyst for hydrogen.

  

  An excavator works at a Sociedad Quimica Minera lithium mine in the Atacama Desert near Calama, Chile, on Sept. 12.

  Photo: AFP

  These materials “will be at the center of decarbonization efforts and electrification of the economy, as we move from fossil fuels to wind and solar power generation, battery and fuel-cell-based electric vehicles (EVs) and hydrogen production,” consulting firm McKinsey & Co said in a report earlier this year.

  Global demand for these critical metals could quadruple by 2040 if the world is to meet its pledges under the Paris climate pact, International Energy Agency estimates showed.

  French researcher Olivier Vidal has calculated that more of the metals would need to be manufactured by 2050 than humanity has produced throughout history.

  While many predict shortages, some believe technology improvements and recycling can keep up with increased production needs, but some regions are more vulnerable than others.

  A study by Belgium’s Universite catholique de Louvain found that Europe faces critical shortages of metals for the next 15 years, particularly lithium, cobalt, nickel, copper and rare earths.

  The European Raw Materials Alliance (ERMA) says Europe would only be able to cover 5 to 55 percent of its key metals needs by 2030.

  While Europe does have untapped resources of cobalt, gallium, germanium and lithium, it would need to issue mining permits to get to them, said Bernd Schaefer, chief executive and managing director of EIT RawMaterials, which has been mandated by the European Commission to lead and manage the ERMA.

  On Monday, industrial minerals manufacturer Imerys SA announced plans for a major lithium mine in central France.

  The US is opening its first cobalt mine in decades, in Idaho.

  Automakers such as Tesla Inc have announced their intention to enter directly into the capital of mining firms.

  Cobalt mining is dominated by the Democratic Republic of the Congo, which accounts for 70 percent of the world total, but in terms of processing, China is the leader, at 50 percent.

  South Africa accounts for 37 percent of global manganese output, while China and Guinea account for more than half of the global production of bauxite, which is used to make aluminum.

  Argentina, Australia and Chile are major lithium producers, while Bolivia has considerable untapped resources.

  “The oil and gas triangle — Saudi Arabia, Russia and the US — has governed the world for 40 years,” said Philippe Varin, who has led French steel and auto firms and recently wrote a report on the supply of raw materials to French companies.

  He said that is now “little by little transforming into a bipolarization of the world between the US and China, the major users of metals in the energy transition.”

  Chinese companies have taken control of 40 percent of the value chain for the metals needed for battery production, Varin said.

  French Institute of Petroleum forecaster Emmanuel Hache said that raw materials “could be the cause of a confrontation between China and the United States in the years to come.”

  “Behind all conflicts you find raw materials as a top cause,” said CyclOpe, an annual French publication on raw materials, making a link between the military coup in Guinea last year and bauxite.
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