The government would trim its GDP growth forecast of 3.76 percent for this year if exports disappoint, but the reading would stay above the 3 percent mark, National Development Council Minister Kung Ming-hsin (龔明鑫) told lawmakers yesterday.
Kung made the remarks as lawmakers raised concerns over the economy, inflation and monetary policy.
The Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics, which in August cut its growth forecast for this year to 3.76 percent, could revise it down again next month if exports fare weaker than expected, Kung said.
Photo: Screen grab from the Legislative Yuan television channel
Exports, the mainstay of Taiwan’s small and open economy, likely had slipped into contraction mode last month after squeezing a mild 2 percent gain in August, the Ministry of Finance has said.
Shipments of tech products slowed drastically in August, while those of non-tech products dipped into negative territory. The government is to release last month’s trade data tomorrow.
Kung voiced confidence that GDP growth would exceed 3 percent this year, but expressed reservations when asked if it would be larger than 3.5 percent.
Growth in the consumer price index for last month is forecast to remain above 2 percent, but is likely to be weaker than August’s growth of 2.66 percent due to a drop in international oil prices, he said.
However, it would be difficult for world energy prices to slump given lingering supply issues, Kung said, adding that while oil prices have sagged, natural gas prices remain high amid the war in Ukraine.
Central banks in advanced nations would reconsider the wisdom of drastic tightening to curb inflation after the UN on Monday warned that the monetary policies of wealthy nations could spark a global economic downturn, Kung said.
Lawmakers from across party lines expressed unease that capital flight would persist, and hurt the local currency and share prices given Taiwan’s widening interest rate gap with major economies.
The global economy would slow from a forecast 2.5 percent growth this year to 2.2 percent next year, a slowdown that would leave global GDP well below its pre-COVID-19 pandemic norm and cost the world economy about US$17 trillion, or 20 percent of the world income, if major central banks press ahead with steep rate hikes, the UN said.
Foreign funds would shift their focus back to economic fundamentals and value local shares again after making moves to reflect global monetary tightening, Kung said.
The minister voiced reservations about suggestions to distribute tax surpluses to stimulate private consumption, saying that the public would most likely save instead of spend the money.
On Ireland’s blustery western seaboard, researchers are gleefully flying giant kites — not for fun, but in the hope of generating renewable electricity and sparking a “revolution” in wind energy. “We use a kite to capture the wind and a generator at the bottom of it that captures the power,” said Padraic Doherty of Kitepower, the Dutch firm behind the venture. At its test site in operation since September 2023 near the small town of Bangor Erris, the team transports the vast 60-square-meter kite from a hangar across the lunar-like bogland to a generator. The kite is then attached by a
Foxconn Technology Co (鴻準精密), a metal casing supplier owned by Hon Hai Precision Industry Co (鴻海精密), yesterday announced plans to invest US$1 billion in the US over the next decade as part of its business transformation strategy. The Apple Inc supplier said in a statement that its board approved the investment on Thursday, as part of a transformation strategy focused on precision mold development, smart manufacturing, robotics and advanced automation. The strategy would have a strong emphasis on artificial intelligence (AI), the company added. The company said it aims to build a flexible, intelligent production ecosystem to boost competitiveness and sustainability. Foxconn
Leading Taiwanese bicycle brands Giant Manufacturing Co (巨大機械) and Merida Industry Co (美利達工業) on Sunday said that they have adopted measures to mitigate the impact of the tariff policies of US President Donald Trump’s administration. The US announced at the beginning of this month that it would impose a 20 percent tariff on imported goods made in Taiwan, effective on Thursday last week. The tariff would be added to other pre-existing most-favored-nation duties and industry-specific trade remedy levy, which would bring the overall tariff on Taiwan-made bicycles to between 25.5 percent and 31 percent. However, Giant did not seem too perturbed by the
TARIFF CONCERNS: Semiconductor suppliers are tempering expectations for the traditionally strong third quarter, citing US tariff uncertainty and a stronger NT dollar Several Taiwanese semiconductor suppliers are taking a cautious view of the third quarter — typically a peak season for the industry — citing uncertainty over US tariffs and the stronger New Taiwan dollar. Smartphone chip designer MediaTek Inc (聯發科技) said that customers accelerated orders in the first half of the year to avoid potential tariffs threatened by US President Donald Trump’s administration. As a result, it anticipates weaker-than-usual peak-season demand in the third quarter. The US tariff plan, announced on April 2, initially proposed a 32 percent duty on Taiwanese goods. Its implementation was postponed by 90 days to July 9, then
RSS