European natural gas prices rose yesterday, following three days of declines, with the market focused on the risk of supplies from Russia and a major heat wave bearing down on parts of the region.
Dutch front-month futures, the European benchmark, rose 1.4 percent to 159.50 euros per megawatt-hour by 9:14am in Amsterdam.
Gazprom PJSC has declared force majeure on shipments to several European buyers over the past month, people familiar with the matter said.
Photo: EPA-EFE
The move might signal that it intends to keep supplies capped, reinforcing Russia’s grip on the region’s energy.
Last month, Russia slashed its exports to Germany via the major Nord Stream link — the main pipeline to the EU —citing delays to gas-turbine maintenance, following Western sanctions against Moscow. One turbine was flown from Canada to Germany on Sunday and could arrive in Russia in about a week, Russia’s Kommersant newspaper reported on Monday.
Some analysts are skeptical the pipeline will immediately return to normal flows after separate, annual maintenance is completed this week.
Photo: Reuters
“Now that Germany and Canada found an arrangement around the sanctions to bring back the turbine that powers Nord Stream 1 pipeline, it will be interesting to see what other reason Gazprom uses to justify force majeure,” said Leslie Palti-Guzman, chief executive officer of New York-based consultancy Gas Vista LLC.
Meanwhile, extreme heat continues to bear down on western Europe. Temperatures in parts of the UK, including London, were forecast to reach an all-time high yesterday. Paris and Amsterdam were expected to peak at levels just shy of records, forecaster Maxar said.
A halt of Russian gas supplies to the EU could potentially reduce its GDP by as much as 1.5 percent if the next winter is cold and the region fails to take preventive measures to save energy, new estimates by the European Commission show.
The European Commission is set to warn that, in the event of an average winter, a cut-off of gas shipments from Moscow would reduce GDP by between 0.6 percent and 1 percent, a draft EU document seen by Bloomberg News says.
It is also planning a set of recommendations to member states — including reductions to heating and cooling use and some market-based measures — to offset the impact of a possible full disruption by Russia, its biggest source of imports.
That measure would be voluntary, and governments would be told to report back in September with specific steps. The commission would also give itself the right to force consumption cuts if needed later on.
“An EU coordinated response before the winter and in solidarity between member states would limit the negative impact on GDP and jobs of a possible major disruption,” the commission said in the draft document, titled “Save gas for a safe winter.”
Taking early action to reduce demand in the case of an average winter could limit the negative impact of a supply cut-off on GDP to 0.4 percent, it estimates.
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