Global PC demand could weaken next year as consumer and educational spending shift amid rising vaccination rates, KGI Securities Investment Advisory Co (凱基投顧) said in a report this month.
PC shipments are forecast to drop 2.6 percent year-on-year to 323.9 million units next year, compared with an estimated increase of 7.6 percent to 332.5 million units this year, KGI said, attributing the fall in PC shipments to weak Chromebook and desktop PC sales.
However, commercial and gaming notebook computers are expected to outperform the overall PC market next year, it added.
Photo: Wu Pei-hua, Taipei Times
“The hybrid work model will be the new normal in the pandemic era, driving stronger demand for commercial laptops than desktops,” KGI analysts Angela Hsiang (向子慧) and Alex Yu (余昀澄) said in the Oct. 15 report. “Therefore, PC vendors will work to strengthen their products, such as those equipped with faster processors, high-profile lenses and the ability to connect to the Internet any time.”
In addition, gaming notebook computer demand would continue to grow next year due to the continued expansion of the e-sports market and the launch of new graphics processing units (GPUs), they added.
KGI forecast Chromebook shipments to drop to 34 million units next year from 39 million this year, due to decreased demand in the education market. That would cause overall notebook computer shipments to fall 1.9 percent year-on-year to 249.5 million units next year, compared with an estimated 10.9 percent increase to 254.2 million units this year.
Desktop computer shipments would drop 5 percent to 74.4 million units next year, following an estimated 1.9 percent decline to 78.3 million units this year, it added.
KGI’s forecast came as Gartner Inc on Oct. 11 reported that global PC shipments increased just 1 percent from a year earlier to 84.15 million units in the third quarter.
International Data Corp (IDC) data released on Oct. 10 showed global PC shipments rose 3.9 percent year-on-year to 86.65 million units in the third quarter, while Canalys Co on Oct. 11 said the global PC market grew 4.9 percent, with shipments settling at 84.08 million units.
The rival researchers use different calculations to measure the market — Gartner defines PCs as desktops, notebooks and ultramobile premium devices, while IDC and Canalys categorize them as desktops, notebooks and workstations.
KGI analysts said the third-quarter results met their expectations, but added that Chromebook shipments were lower than their estimate, as demand for computers to support at-home education has weakened after many schools worldwide reopened.
According to Gartner’s tallies, Chromebook shipments declined 17 percent in the third quarter from a year earlier to 7.3 million units, marking the first double-digit percentage annual decline in Chromebook sales since its introduction to the market in 2011.
KGI analysts said the shortages of driver ICs, power management ICs and GPUs, as well as logistics bottlenecks, continued to constrain PC shipments in the third quarter, and the effect is expected to persist into the first half of next year.
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