The Philippine and Malaysian economies continued contracting in the first three months of the year, adding to signs that some of Southeast Asia’s biggest nations are struggling amid a resurgence in COVID-19 cases.
The quarterly figures released yesterday — which came in below all forecasts for the Philippines — add to weaker signals from top regional economies Indonesia and Thailand.
All four countries have faced a surge of COVID-19 cases in the past few weeks, part of the broader challenge across Asia’s developing economies to stem a renewed outbreak, particularly in India.
Photo: Bloomberg
Among Southeast Asia’s biggest economies, only Singapore and Vietnam, which have contained the pandemic, showed year-on-year expansions in the first quarter.
The Philippines’ economy is struggling to gain momentum as elevated numbers of COVID cases hamper reopening efforts and destroy jobs.
The country’s GDP fell 4.2 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, the Philippine Statistics Authority said yesterday, below all estimates in a Bloomberg survey of economists.
The Philippines’ GDP grew 0.3 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis in the first three months of the year from the final quarter of last year — compared with an estimate of 0.8 percent growth.
“As we learn to live with the virus, we have recalibrated our approach to the pandemic by managing risks instead of just imposing blanket quarantines,” Philippine Secretary for Socioeconomic Planning Karl Chua (蔡榮富) told journalists in a video briefing. “We will continue to be guided by the latest health and economic data in order to safely reopen the economy once this present spike has subsided.”
Malaysia’s economic contraction slowed at the beginning of this year, in between surges of COVID-19 cases and tighter restrictions to contain the disease.
The country’s GDP shrank 0.5 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, the Bank Negara Malaysia said yesterday, compared with the 0.9 percent contraction expected by analysts in a Bloomberg survey.
Compared with the previous three months, the economy grew 2.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis, beating expectations for 0.6 percent growth.
“The economic recovery remains on track,” central bank Governor Nor Shamsiah Yunus said in a briefing. “We have said that there will be speed bumps along the way, but we expect growth to remain within the 6 percent to 7.5 percent” forecast range for the full year.
Thailand, which is expected to show a contraction when it reports first-quarter figures next week, has lowered its full-year outlook, with the Thailand Ministry of Finance citing poor tourism activity.
Indonesia, the region’s biggest economy, expects to grow this quarter at the fastest pace since 2008, as the government turns to fresh stimulus programs to lift domestic demand.
While the four countries expect to see full-year growth, a weak first quarter has tempered the outlook for Southeast Asia.
The Asian Development Bank late last month lowered its forecast for the region to 4.4 percent this year and reduced projections for Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand.
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