The IMF has raised its forecast for Taiwan’s GDP growth this year to 4.7 percent, up 1.5 percentage points from its most recent estimate late last year.
In the IMF’s World Economic Outlook report issued on Tuesday, titled “Managing Divergent Recoveries,” IMF chief economist Gita Gopinath wrote that despite continued uncertainty around the COVID-19 pandemic, economies around the world have shown a “stronger than anticipated rebound.”
As a result, the IMF projected a better global economic recovery compared with its previous forecast in January, she said.
Photo: Yuri Gripas, Reuters
Global economic growth is projected to be 6 percent this year, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous forecast, and 4.4 percent next year, up 0.2 percentage points, after an estimated historic contraction of 3.3 percent last year.
The report predicted that Taiwan’s economy would grow by 4.7 percent this year, up 1.5 percentage points from 3.2 percent growth the IMF forecast in October last year, and that it would grow 3 percent next year.
The estimate was slightly higher than the 4.64 percent annual GDP growth that the Directorate-General of Budget, Accounting and Statistics (DBGAS) forecast in February and the 4.53 percent growth predicted by Taiwan’s central bank last month.
Taiwan’s 3.1 percent GDP growth last year put it first among economies in the Asia-Pacific region, followed by Vietnam with 2.9 percent growth and China with 2.3 percent growth.
Among other economic indicators, the report predicted that Taiwan’s consumer price index (CPI), a major gauge of inflation, would rise 0.9 percent this year and 1.2 percent next year, while the unemployment rate would be 3.8 percent for both years.
The CPI rose 1.37 percent year-on-year in February, while the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 3.73 percent, DGBAS figures showed.
Of the other economies comprising the “Four Asian Tigers,” the GDPs of South Korea, Singapore and Hong Kong contracted by 1 percent, 5.4 percent and 6.1 percent respectively last year, the IMF report said.
The same three economies are expected to grow 3.6 percent, 5.2 percent and 4.3 percent respectively this year, and 2.8 percent, 3.2 percent and 3.8 percent next year, it said.
The IMF typically publishes its World Economic Outlook twice a year, in September or October, and in April.
In January, the IMF released a report updating its forecasts for major world economies and regions, but it did not contain specific information about Taiwan.
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