The TAIEX is likely to hover between 13,000 and 15,000 points in the first and second quarters of next year as it enters consolidation mode, before rallying in the third quarter and climbing to 16,800 points in the fourth quarter, Capital Investment Management Corp (群益證投顧) said yesterday.
The TAIEX yesterday closed up 1.06 percent at 14,483.07 points, a record high, Taiwan Stock Exchange data showed.
The index is expected to face correction pressure in the first quarter of next year, which is usually a low season for the local technology sector, Capital Investment chairman Andrew Tsai (蔡明彥) said in a media briefing in Taipei.
Photo: Vanessa Cho, Taipei Times
The correction is expected to last into the second quarter, Tsai said, adding that investors tend to sell stocks with low-yield dividends before May, the beginning of the tax season, so they could pay less tax.
“While investors usually hold stocks with yields of at least 4 percent during the tax season, as the high yields would offset higher tax payments, there would be fewer stocks with high yields next year as most companies would remain cautious,” he said.
The TAIEX is projected to move to a range of 14,000 to 15,500 points in the third quarter, as the local technology sector would benefit from more orders in the peak season, Tsai said.
“Experts have predicted that herd immunity [for COVID-19] would be achieved in the third quarter, which would have a mixed effect on the market. Investors would feel relieved and be more optimistic, but governments might consider ending their quantitative easing programs,” he said.
Another risk the local stock market would face is volatility in the US stock market, which would be affected by US president-elect Joe Biden’s policies, Washington’s tax increases on the rich, tighter regulations on Facebook Inc, Apple Inc, Amazon.com Inc, Netflix Inc and Alphabet Inc’s Google, and an overheating of the initial public offering market, Tsai said.
If the US stock market does not crash and governments extend their quantitative easing programs, it is possible that the TAIEX would advance to 16,800 points at most in the fourth quarter, he said.
Capital Investment has an upbeat outlook for local biotech companies, due to rising demand for COVID-19 test reagents and vaccines. It is optimistic about the marine shipping sector on the back of robust demand, as well as sports and leisure equipment companies thanks to higher demand for fitness products, it said.
It also has an upbeat outlook for airlines, as border controls are expected to relax next year, and people might opt to travel on regional routes, such as from Taiwan to Southeast Asia, it said.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co (TSMC, 台積電) is expected to post a 25 percent year-on-year increase in sales in the first quarter of this year to US$12.91 billion, up from US$10.31 billion a year earlier, as its production is at full capacity, market advisory firm TrendForce Corp said in a note last week. The increase would help TSMC cement its leadership in the industry by taking a 56 percent market share in the global pure wafer foundry business, TrendForce said. Its forecast was in line with TSMC’s estimate in January, which pointed to a range of US$12.7 billion to US$13 billion for the
MULTI-USE: The arrangement of seats in future vehicles would be different, allowing passengers to do everything they do at home, the CEO of the firm’s EV platform said Electric vehicles (EVs) developed on a Hon Hai Precision Industry Co (鴻海精密) platform would be built like “a smartphone on a different platform,” Jack Cheng (鄭顯聰), chief executive officer of the Hon Hai-initiated MIH Open Platform Alliance, said on Saturday. It would be the ultimate goal to make vehicles built on the platform an extension of the driver’s home, he said during an online presentation. The alliance aims to provide resources to automakers and boost Taiwan’s EV development, with a vision to make an EV its owner’s “second home,” Cheng said. “Whatever they can do in their home, they will be able
RARE POSITION: IHS Markit expects exports to increase by about 13 percent this year, as demand for electronics worldwide has recovered significantly since last year Taiwan’s economy might expand 4.1 percent this year, accelerating from a 3.11 percent pickup last year, as its exports would continue to benefit from surging demand for electronics products amid and after the COVID-19 pandemic, global research body IHS Markit said yesterday. Taiwan has been one of the world’s most resilient economies during the pandemic-triggered recession last year. Economic indicators at the beginning of this year signal improving growth momentum for its economy over the coming months, as the global economy and trade rebounds, the US-British information provider said. According to the latest IHS Markit survey of business confidence in Taiwan, the
Clean energy use and reduction of carbon dioxide emissions are the common consciousness of all countries in the world. Among them, the introduction of renewable energy storage systems and the promotion of electric vehicles are the unanimous implementation of governments and enterprises around the world. The most critical strategic component is the lithium ion battery. Whoever has a higher energy density, lower cost, and higher safety lithium battery will control the development trend of this wave of safer lithium battery technology. All-solid-state batteries are a goal that everyone is striving to pursue. However, the stable and large scale production of solid-state