The production value of Taiwan’s manufacturing sector is forecast to grow 4.75 percent annually next year, thanks to recovering demand as the global economy reopens after large-scale COVID-19-related lockdowns, Industrial Technology Research Institute (ITRI, 工研院) officials said yesterday.
The rebound would follow an annual contraction of 4.05 percent this year, the institute said.
Production value next year would expand to NT$19.68 trillion (US$678.48 billion) from NT$18.79 trillion this year, the institute said.
Photo: Lisa Wang, Taipei Times
Emerging technologies such as 5G, high-performance computing, artificial intelligence and the Internet of Things would drive the growth, it said.
The distance-learning and work-from-home trends are also stimulating demand for notebook computers and tablets, as well as the electronic components used in those devices, it added.
The institute said that it holds a cautiously optimistic outlook for next year regarding the manufacturing sector, despite uncertainty resulting from upticks in COVID-19 cases worldwide and unresolved technology disputes between the US and China.
“The US and China will continue to trade technology after the US presidential election, as both candidates have pledged to safeguard the interests of the US and its technological leadership,” Stephen Su (蘇孟宗), general director of the institute’s Industry, Science and Technology International Strategy Center (ISTI, 產科國際所), told a news conference in Taipei.
The situation might ease somewhat following the election, as the two nations might seek to resolve their differences via negotiations, Su said, adding that local manufacturers should be aware of realignments in global supply chains.
“The COVID-19 pandemic is the greatest factor affecting the prospects of the manufacturing sector next year,” ISTI senior researcher Patrick Liou (劉名寰) said.
The public health crisis could result in economic fallout and weaken consumer consumption if there are more waves of COVID-19, Liou said.
The information and communications technology industry next year would remain the supporting pillar of Taiwan’s manufacturing sector, he said.
Production value in the industry would increase 3.55 percent year-on-year to NT$8 trillion, up from NT$7.72 trillion this year, he added.
Production value in the semiconductor industry would rise 3.6 percent year-on-year, down from 20.7 percent this year, an ISTI estimate showed.
Production value in the base metals and machinery industries would grow 4.28 percent year-on-year to NT$5.19 trillion, up from NT$4.98 trillion this year, thanks to improving global auto sales.
The industry’s output this year is expected to contract 9.31 percent.
The petrochemical sector would resume annual growth of 9.35 percent to NT$4.05 trillion from NT$3.7 trillion this year.
Production value in the sector this year would fall 18.76 percent, as crude oil prices stabilize, Liou said.
Production value in the livelihood sector, which includes restaurants and tourism-related businesses, would increase 2.5 percent to NT$2.45 trillion, following a decline of 4.8 percent to NT$2.39 trillion this year, on the back of improving consumer confidence and recovering tourism, the institute said.
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