TrendForce Corp (集邦科技) yesterday raised its outlook for the DRAM industry, saying that contract DRAM should increase by a single-digit percentage this quarter from last quarter, rather than continuing last year’s downward trend as was estimated previously.
The DRAM industry is experiencing “a new cyclical upturn earlier than expected,” TrendForce said in a report.
A brief disruption in production — caused by a power outage at Samsung Electronics Co’s factory in Hwaseong, South Korea, on Tuesday last week — has stimulated demand and is buoying chip prices, the Taipei-based researcher said.
It has also “boosted DRAM chip buyers’ willingness to build up inventories,” although the production disruption did not significantly reduce the chip supply, it said.
In addition, an upturn in contract DRAM chips is taking a cue from price hikes on the spot market, TrendForce said.
PC DRAM chip prices this quarter are highly likely to rise due to increasing supply constraint risks, despite chip demand waning after most notebook computers were shipped to the US in the last quarter, it said.
This year, PC makers expect the chip supply to grow at a mild pace of 13 percent annually, pushing PC DRAM prices higher, the researcher said, adding that the Samsung incident has added to supply concerns.
PC makers are willing to endure higher prices to build safer inventories, it added.
Mobile DRAM chip prices this quarter could flatten, possibly declining 5 percent quarterly, as the slow rollout of 5G-enabled smartphones would limit demand for 5G chips, TrendForce said.
This quarter, special DRAM DDR3 and DDR4 — used mostly in consumer electronics — should see earlier-than-expected price increases of zero to 5 percent quarterly amid supply concerns, it said.
Samsung produces most of its specialty DRAM chips on a production line at the Hwaseong plant, it said.
Server DRAM prices this quarter are expected to rise by zero to 5 percent quarterly, while graphics DRAM prices might increase 5 to 10 percent, TrendForce added.
The US dollar was trading at NT$29.7 at 10am today on the Taipei Foreign Exchange, as the New Taiwan dollar gained NT$1.364 from the previous close last week. The NT dollar continued to rise today, after surging 3.07 percent on Friday. After opening at NT$30.91, the NT dollar gained more than NT$1 in just 15 minutes, briefly passing the NT$30 mark. Before the US Department of the Treasury's semi-annual currency report came out, expectations that the NT dollar would keep rising were already building. The NT dollar on Friday closed at NT$31.064, up by NT$0.953 — a 3.07 percent single-day gain. Today,
‘SHORT TERM’: The local currency would likely remain strong in the near term, driven by anticipated US trade pressure, capital inflows and expectations of a US Fed rate cut The US dollar is expected to fall below NT$30 in the near term, as traders anticipate increased pressure from Washington for Taiwan to allow the New Taiwan dollar to appreciate, Cathay United Bank (國泰世華銀行) chief economist Lin Chi-chao (林啟超) said. Following a sharp drop in the greenback against the NT dollar on Friday, Lin told the Central News Agency that the local currency is likely to remain strong in the short term, driven in part by market psychology surrounding anticipated US policy pressure. On Friday, the US dollar fell NT$0.953, or 3.07 percent, closing at NT$31.064 — its lowest level since Jan.
The New Taiwan dollar and Taiwanese stocks surged on signs that trade tensions between the world’s top two economies might start easing and as US tech earnings boosted the outlook of the nation’s semiconductor exports. The NT dollar strengthened as much as 3.8 percent versus the US dollar to 30.815, the biggest intraday gain since January 2011, closing at NT$31.064. The benchmark TAIEX jumped 2.73 percent to outperform the region’s equity gauges. Outlook for global trade improved after China said it is assessing possible trade talks with the US, providing a boost for the nation’s currency and shares. As the NT dollar
PRESSURE EXPECTED: The appreciation of the NT dollar reflected expectations that Washington would press Taiwan to boost its currency against the US dollar, dealers said Taiwan’s export-oriented semiconductor and auto part manufacturers are expecting their margins to be affected by large foreign exchange losses as the New Taiwan dollar continued to appreciate sharply against the US dollar yesterday. Among major semiconductor manufacturers, ASE Technology Holding Co (日月光), the world’s largest integrated circuit (IC) packaging and testing services provider, said that whenever the NT dollar rises NT$1 against the greenback, its gross margin is cut by about 1.5 percent. The NT dollar traded as strong as NT$29.59 per US dollar before trimming gains to close NT$0.919, or 2.96 percent, higher at NT$30.145 yesterday in Taipei trading
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