US’ Geithner plays down oil price risk

Sat, Mar 05, 2011 page10

US’ Geithner plays down oil price risk

TOUGHER TIMES: US Secretary of the Treasury Timothy Geithner acknowledged that rising commodity prices were causing hardship in many parts of the world
- Reuters, WASHINGTON
Rich nations could tap strategic oil reserves if needed to ward off the risk that Middle East political unrest triggers an inflationary price spiral, US Secretary of the Treasury Timothy Geithner said on Thursday.
In wide-ranging testimony before the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Geithner again tweaked China for keeping its currency too low and assured lawmakers he was committed to expanding US overseas trade, while playing down risks that oil prices were a threat to a budding recovery.
He said there was “considerable” spare oil production capacity around the world and “substantial” reserves on hand.

US Secretary of the Treasury Timothy Geithner testifies before the US Senate Foreign Relations Committee in Washington on Thursday.

Photo: AFP

“If necessary, those reserves could be mobilized to help mitigate the effect of a severe, sustained supply disruption,” he said.
Political protests have swept through parts of the Middle East and North Africa, sending tremors through markets for fear it could spread to key producers such as Saudi Arabia.

Geithner did not appear to be signaling any short-term intent to dip into US reserves, but rather to make the point that there were options if a lengthy interruption of supplies occurred.
Tapping the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, created in the mid-70s after the Arab oil embargo, is a relatively rare event and it has been US policy to turn to the emergency supply only when faced with a major supply disruption.
The last time it was done was in 2005 following Hurricane Katrina and it drove oil prices down by about 9 percent at the time.
Unrest in oil producer Libya has propelled US crude oil futures above US$100 a barrel in recent days. Crude had traded at about US$86 before protests struck Egypt in late January, the first in a wave of unrest that has encompassed much of the region.
Geithner said the administration of US President Barack Obama was monitoring Middle East developments closely and acknowledged that rising commodity prices — for both food and oil — were causing hardship in many parts of the world by pushing prices up, but he said Americans were feeling less impact.
“In the United States, rising gasoline prices have left consumers with less money to spend, but underlying inflation across all goods and services is modest,” Geithner said.
He also repeated a call for global agreement on “stronger norms for exchange rate policies” to ensure that some countries don’t use an artificially low currency rate to benefit their own economies at the expense of other nations.
“There is broad consensus that the major economies — not just Europe, Japan and the United States, but also the large emerging economies — need to allow their exchange rates to adjust in response to market forces,” Geithner said.
He said the yuan “remains substantially undervalued” and said there has been limited progress in getting Beijing to let it rise in value more rapidly.
The global economy is gradually regaining its footing after three years of crisis, Geithner said, though the pace of growth was uneven and unbalanced.
Geithner pointed to forecasts from the IMF that forecast that emerging-market economies will expand 6.5 percent this year, while Japan and Europe will manage only 1.5 percent growth.
If oil prices stay at about US$110 per barrel, Deutsche Bank economist Peter Hooper estimated it would trim 0.35 percentage points off of US economic output, a moderate hit considering economists expect growth in the 3.4 percent range this year.
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