The Guardian, London
It's a hard question for many Apple fans to ask, but the music industry is asking it nonetheless: what is going to supersede the iPod? Confident and cool as the white icon is in its domination of the digital download market, other gadgets are starting to muscle in on its territory.
From one of the many music mobile phones being launched, to Sony's Playstation Portable (PSP) and other digital audio players -- the iPod's reign is looking rocky. Or is it? MusicTank, a UK music industry thinktank, recently held a debate to tackle this theory. I Came, I Saw, iPod -- What's Next? put the negatives of portable audio players -- poor interoperability, limited battery life and the restraints of digital rights management -- against those of mobile phones: burdens of storage, functionality and cost, to see which format could soon be singing its swansong.
PHOTO: EPA
Technology columnist Charles Arthur opened the debate with a damning speech on mobile phones and the download space. "Can I store my entire album collection on my mobile phone? No. Can I download tracks quickly and easily? No, 3G isn't offering that yet. Can I access my music in a couple of clicks? No," he said.
"The mobile companies do win on payment -- people are used to buying ringtones on their mobile and having that charged to their phone bill, [and] the same system can work for downloads. But anything else -- including navigation of the content, the price of the actual songs because of the licensing madness that is going on with the various formats, transferability backwards and forwards between a PC and mobile phone, especially the question of backing up -- I think they will lose," he said.
The reach of the mobile industry, however, and its potential audience is far greater than any of the music download platforms, said Steve Mayall, MusicAlly mobile and wireless analyst.
"It took the iPod four years to sell about 20 million but you look at the growth of mobile phones and it just completely obliterates that," he said. "The text message market is bigger than the whole music community globally."
Numbers are one thing, but customer satisfaction is another, and more operations on a mobile can mean less reliability. Michael Bull, senior lecturer in media and film studies at the University of Sussex, said: "My research shows 25 percent of iPod users don't like their phones, [often because] they don't always work well."
"Phones can play music, but it doesn't mean people will want to listen to music on them," he said.
The idea of control and privacy is important to a music lover, and both these things are offered by the iPod.
"To some extent, listening to music is about listeners immersing themselves and hopefully not being disturbed. You get a form of control by using an iPod, which mobile phones destroy as soon as someone else wants to phone you. It becomes interruptive,"Bull said.
Mobiles will also have to offer comparable storage to an iPod -- as yet, only the upcoming Nokia N91 gets close.
"While the technology might catch up eventually, [mobile companies] are running out of time because Apple are also moving forward. A wireless iPod is increasingly likely. A video iPod, too," Arthur said.
He thinks the well-designed, media-rich PSP, with its large harddisk storage, will prove more of a contender to the iPod. But it, too, has drawbacks, such as its bulkier size and incompatibility with the popular iTunes Music Store.
Barney Wragg, Universal's eLabs senior vice president, argued that Apple's focus on presentation and making their product work well holds the key.
"If there's one thing that Apple showed us, it's that technology isn't the important thing," Wragg said. "Apple have succeeded because of style and consumer experience."
Wragg thinks television may be the next digital music format.
"Sky and others will introduce broadband-capable set-top boxes capable of supporting music sales," he said. "But these services will only work if I can transfer my purchases to my iPod."
Convergence would be essential if the suggestion of a "celestial jukebox" was to work, too. Mayall argued that music could be sold as a commodity, like water or power, through a subscription model and streamed to multiple devices with always-on access. But, as Bull said: "If you can access everything, you can't choose anything," pointing to the success of the iPod Shuffle, which takes the hard work out of song selection.
The final choice will be with the consumer and which format they feel is the best to store and transport their music. For now, the iPod is definitely the Apple of their eye.
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