Two well-known China experts yesterday emphasized their opposing perspectives on the economic future of China during separate speeches at an event organized by a local business group at the Taipei International Confer-ence Center.
Gordon Chang (
PHOTO: FANG PIN-CHAO, TAIPEI TIMES
Calling Ohmae "Mr. everything-is-OK-in-China" in his afternoon speech, Chang urged the people of Taiwan not to overlook the political and social risks of doing business there.
"China has a history of inviting in foreigners so that it can copy their technology and then show them the door once it can develop local competitors," Chang said.
He insisted that China's political and economic systems are headed for collapse, saying industrial over-capacity in world markets would make it difficult for China-based investors to generate profits.
The collapse, he said, will be sparked by Beijing's failure to address three hidden problems -- a deteriorating banking sector, rising unemployment and an underdeveloped agricultural sector.
"If anything can halt the Chinese economy dead in its tracks, it's a complete breakdown of the banking system caused by some US$720 billion in non-performing [loan] obligations," Chang said.
Chinese leaders are using tomorrow's debts to fake today's growth, he concluded. He went on to criticize Ohmae for not wanting his ideas subject to cross examination and fleeing Taipei before Chang could give a rebuttal to comments he made in his speech yesterday morning.
Ohmae left for Hong Kong after giving his speech and taking part in a question-and-answer session.
While Chang advised Taiwan not to fall into the "one China" trap, Ohmae urged the government to accelerate trust-based cross-strait negotiations and to work out deals with China that will better protect China-based Taiwanese businesses.
"Among all Asian countries, Taiwan has created the most successful business model in China," Ohmae said, adding that Taiwan is also in the best position to compete for economic gains in the greater China market.
He urged Taiwan not to lose the chance to become a major driving force behind China's future economic success.
During a question-and-answer session, Ohmae took the opportunity to rebut Chang's theories.
Ohmae gave high marks to the 1998 reforms kicked off by China's former premier Zhu Rongji (
Ohmae told reporters that Chang reached his conclusions based on "outdated data from before 1998."
He said that he would have made the same conclusion five or six years ago, but that the economic reality in China has changed.
"China's explosive growth is urban and could continue for another decade," he said in his address, adding that "most neighboring and Western economies can't live without China," he said.
He also said Taiwan should take advantage of China's economic strength.
Elaborating on his theory of a Greater China federation, Ohmae said that China has gradually decentralized and six coastal regions are now competing fiercely against one another, vying for foreign investments. He also urged Taiwan to accelerate direct links.
Both Ohmae and Chang agreed that Taiwan should beef up its competitiveness and its research and development capability.
Major business leaders including Morris Chang (
However, Taiwan Thinktank chairman Chen Po-chih (陳博志), and Wen Shih-jen (溫世仁), vice chairman of Inventec Co (
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